Financing the House races

At the end of July, the National Republican Congressional Committee had $34.1 million in the bank. Its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had $33 million. The Republicans’ $1.1 million advantage was one-sixth the advantage it held at the end of July 2004. In addition, compared to 2004, when only two Republican incumbents (Max Burns of Georgia and Phil Crane of Illinois) were defeated, far more Republican incumbents appear to be in trouble this year.

Moreover, based on campaign financial reports filed with the Federal Election Commission for fund-raising activity ending June 30, their Democratic challengers were flush with cash, a condition that did not hold in 2004. Democrats must gain 15 seats in the House to recapture a majority of seats and 100 percent of the committee and subcommittee chairmanships. At the same time, a much smaller number of potentially endangered Democratic incumbents had far more money in the bank on June 30 than their Republican challengers had.

Based on the latest ratings by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, 27 Republican incumbents in the House are either defending seats that Charlie Cook considers to be “toss-ups” (11) or “lean[ing] Republican” (16). In an era when political experts consider $400,000 to be the minimum amount needed to challenge an incumbent representative, eight Democratic challengers have raised at least $1 million in these 11 “toss-up” seats (the average campaign receipts through June 30 for these eight challengers exceeded $1.6 million). At the end of June, moreover, 10 of the 11 Democratic challengers had at least $500,000 in cash on hand; and six of those 10 had more than $950,000. The eleventh challenger had a respectable $435,000 in the bank.

In several closely followed rematches, Diane Farrell, who lost to Chris Shays, Connecticut Republican, in 2004 by less than 5 points, had $1.4 million in the bank compared to his $1.5 million. Joseph Courtney, who lost to Connecticut Republican Rob Simmons by eight points in 2002, had nearly $1 million in the bank, compared to the incumbent’s $1.3 million. In Indiana’s 9th Congressional District, Baron Hill, who was the only non-Texas Democratic incumbent to lose in the 2004 general election, had nearly $1 million in the bank in his challenge against Mike Sodrel, who had $1.1 million. Pennsylvania Rep. Jim Gerlach, who defeated Lois Murphy by two points in 2004, had less money in the bank on June 30 ($1.3 million) than she did ($1.4 million). In North Carolina’s 11th District, eight-term Republican incumbent Charles Taylor had less than $250,000 in cash on hand, compared to the nearly $700,000 in the bank account of challenger Joseph Heath Shuler (yes, Redskins fans, that Heath Shuler).

Six of the Democratic candidates challenging incumbents in the 16 “lean[ing] Republican” seats have raised more than $1 million; and nine of the 16 challengers had more than $500,000 in the bank on June 30 (three others had at least $400,000 in cash on hand). The Cook report rates no Democratic-held seats as “toss-ups.” Only eight Democratic incumbents are defending themselves in “lean[ing] Democratic” seats. Five of the eight Republican challengers in these races have raised more than $1 million, and five had at least $500,000 in the bank on June 30. In each of the eight races, however, as of June 30 the Democratic incumbent enjoyed a significant cash-on-hand advantage, which averaged $750,000 per district. The minimum Democratic cash advantage was more than 40 percent, and no Republican challenger had $1 million in the bank.