Virginia’s school population is booming

RICHMOND — A population boom will increase the number of public-school students in Virginia over the next five years, but mostly in the outer suburbs of the District, according to a University of Virginia study.

The study by the university’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service shows about 30,000 more students will enter Virginia public-school systems to bring total enrollment to 1.22 million in 2010, a 2.5 percent increase over current enrollment. The projected growth follows a steady increase in school population since 1985, the report states.

Such an increase will cost an additional $275 million in local, state and federal education money, assuming that per-student spending stays constant. The increase will have a “dramatic impact on the state budget and on the budget of many local school divisions,” the report states.

Most of the projected growth is expected in 12 of Virginia’s 132 school divisions, including Loudoun and Prince William counties.

Loudoun County is expected to gain 21,350 students over the next five years, a 46 percent increase. Prince William County is expected to gain nearly 16,300 students, a 24 percent increase.

Stafford and Spotsylvania counties are expected to each gain more than 5,200 students, or 23 percent and 20 percent, respectively.

Loudoun County has had a school-construction boom in recent years. After voters approved several bond issues, six high schools were built in the past nine years, with five built from 2000 to 2005, and another to be built in 2008, said spokesman Wayde B. Byard.

He said that in 1991 the county had 34 schools and 15,118 students, compared with 68 schools and more than 50,000 students this year.

The school system has hired hundreds of new teachers annually, bringing in candidates from across the country and outside the United States, Mr. Byard said. It also frequently has had to redraw school boundaries to accommodate new students.

Loudoun has had a higher-than-average birth rate and an influx of families of Hispanic and Asian backgrounds.

In 1989, the county had 392 students of Asian descent, compared with 5,151 last year, according to school system figures. Over the same period, the number of Hispanic students increased from 266 to 5,471.

However, 60 percent of the state’s school systems are expected to have fewer students by 2010. Virginia Beach public schools will have 4,500 fewer students over the next five years. Richmond, Hampton and Norfolk are each expected to lose 1,400 to 1,700 students, the report states.

Virginia Beach had a decrease in the birth rate from 1993 to 2001 and has had slightly more people moving out of the area than moving into it, said a school official.

Statewide, the number of births has increased since 2000, causing large overall increases in the number of elementary-school children. The number of students in kindergarten through sixth grade is projected to peak at 667,000 students in 2010.