Ad blitz cited as Rales leads Steele in new poll

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Democrat Josh Rales, who began a multimillion-dollar TV advertising blitz last month, is leading Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele in the race for Maryland's open U.S. Senate seat, according to a poll released yesterday.

Mr. Rales, a Bethesda businessman and political newcomer, was favored by 45.7 percent of voters in a head-to-head matchup with Mr. Steele, the top Republican candidate, who had 42.2 percent, the poll conducted by Zogby International and distributed through the Wall Street Journal found.

"We're very excited," said Alyson Chadwick, a spokeswoman for Mr. Rales. "That's a very reputable source, the Wall Street Journal."

Two other Democrats had bigger leads on Mr. Steele, in separate head-to-head matchups.

Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin, a 10-term congressman from Baltimore, had 50.3 percent to Mr. Steele's 41.4 percent. Kweisi Mfume, past president of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, had 47.4 percent to Mr. Steele's 42.7 percent, the poll shows.

No data was provided in the poll about head-to-head matchups among the three Democrats. The Democratic primary is Sept. 12.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 15 to Aug. 21 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. Zogby conducts polls using a database of likely voters who sign up to participate in its polls.

A spokesman for Mr. Steele dismisses Mr. Rales' lead.

"It's hard to judge the substance of [the poll] because there does not appear to be a Democratic primary poll that was taken, and that's where the attention of the voters will be over the next two or three weeks," said spokesman Doug Heye.

Mr. Heye said the Steele campaign was "encouraged" by the poll because Mr. Cardin was running TV commercials during the time the poll was taken, and the Steele campaign was not.

"If you look at the previous polls, there was no movement between then and now," Mr. Heye said.

Some political analysts, such as the National Journal's "Hotline," have dismissed Zogby's polls as unreliable.

But Mr. Rales' inclusion in the poll is evidence that his huge advertising blitz has made a difference, said James Gimpel, a political science professor at the University of Maryland at College Park.

Mr. Rales has spent about $4 million, much of it from his own fortune, to blanket the airwaves in the D.C. area and Baltimore markets. His six campaign commercials have been a constant presence since early last month.

Mr. Rales also has campaigned aggressively, traveling the state and meeting voters.

"It sounds like it's made a difference for him. I think there are good reasons to question the Zogby methods, but the fact that [Mr. Rales] is only a little bit behind the other two suggests that he has made up some ground and that he is a serious contender now."

The Rales campaign used the poll numbers to call for his inclusion in Thursday's Democratic primary debate, which is being sponsored by the League of Women Voters and televised by Maryland Public Television.

But Lu Pierson, president of the League of Women Voters of Maryland, said the group only would allow Mr. Cardin and Mr. Mfume to participate. Mrs. Pierson said the league decided about a year ago to include only candidates who had garnered 15 percent in a statewide poll by July 1.

"The only two candidates that met that criteria ... were Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume," Mrs. Pierson said. "We did reconsider and decided we needed to stick with the criteria we adopted."