Star power of Giuliani may win over conservatives

Social conservatives — contrary to conventional wisdom — will seriously consider supporting the Republican presidential aspirations of Rudolph W. Giuliani even though he’s a pro-choice, anti-gun New Yorker, political analysts and operatives say.

Republicans in the early primary states in the South and the West may disagree with Mr. Giuliani’s stance on abortion and gun control, but they admire his response to the September 11 attacks and, more importantly, they think he can win in November.

Scott Malyerck, executive director of the Republican Party in South Carolina, an early primary test, said voters recognize Mr. Giuliani as a strong, decisive leader and a decision maker.

“John McCain and Mitt Romney have been working hard in South Carolina over the past year,” Mr. Malyerck said. “Even though Rudy Giuliani has not formally gotten his campaign up and going, he has been treated like a rock star across the state at rallies and fundraisers alike.”

Mr. Giuliani leads every other Republican — including Mr. McCain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — in national and many state presidential preference polls of Republican voters.

Giuliani skeptics admit he’s their party’s top attraction for 2008, but some remain adamant in their opposition.

“If Rudy Giuliani — who is wrong on all of the social issues as well as the Second Amendment and is a blank slate on most other important issues such as judges, taxes and size of government — is the Republican presidential nominee, I would expect a mass exit of most conservatives from the Republican Party in 2008,” warns Richard A. Viguerie, a prominent conservative-movement fundraiser and author.

“Which means if the Republican Party continues to move away from being the party of small government and traditional values, they will cease to be a viable alternative to the Democratic Party, and a new conservative party will certainly arise to be their replacement.”

But for many others, Mr. Giuliani appears to offer the kind of leadership for which they have been longing and the wattage to generate support.

“The most important quality in a candidate is the ability to project competence and leadership, and I think Giuliani has had that reputation since 9/11,” says Tim Morgan, a social conservative and Republican National Committee member from California who this week was named RNC treasurer.

“If you look deeper, beyond 9/11, as mayor in so many ways he turned that city around — he has a solid reputation,” says Mr. Morgan, who says he is not endorsing Mr. Giuliani.

Florida Republican Party Chairman Carole Jean Jordan said that wherever Mr. Giuliani appears, “he sucks all the oxygen out of the room.”

Mrs. Jordan, who said she has no horse in the 2008 race, recalled a fall dinner held by the Walton County Chamber of Commerce where Mr. Giuliani’s star power shined.

“Even the chef, the whole kitchen staff, came out and stood at attention — and the waiters, all the hotel employees, the local sheriff’s deputies — because they heard Rudy, the hero of 9/11, was about to walk into the room,” she said, adding that he took the time to have his photo taken with every one of them.

Delegate-rich Florida will be important because that state — along with New Jersey, Michigan, Missouri and 11 other states — has moved its primary up to Feb. 5, three days after South Carolina’s primary. Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses, where Mr. Giuliani’s brand of Republicanism may find a cool welcome, are scheduled for Jan. 21, followed by New Hampshire’s primary on Jan. 28.

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