Russia’s role in the Middle East

If Washington is upset with Russian President Vladimir Putin over an invitation he has extended to Hamas, asking the radical Palestinians to come to Moscow for talks, Israeli officials are livid.

Russia is one of the four co-sponsors of the Middle East Road Map, along with the United States, the United Nations and the European Union. Mr. Putin says Russia is acting in the spirit of the Road Map. Israel says how would Mr. Putin like it if they invited Chechen rebels for talks? Washington and Jerusalem considers Hamas, the winner of recent elections in the Palestinian territories, to be a terrorist organization.

Before the Bush administration will agree to engage Hamas in negotiations, and before Israel will accept Hamas as an interlocutor, Washington and Jerusalem want Hamas to recognize Israel. The problem, or rather one of the problems — there are so many in this turbulent part of the world — is that Hamas’ charter calls for the destruction of Israel.

The dilemma, or rather one of them, as there are so many in this part … oh, you get the drift. The dilemma is how to get around this problem. Stephen P. Cohen, a scholar with the Israel Policy Forum, an independent and non-partisan organization that promotes and advocates active American efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, believes there might be a solution to the conundrum.

The solution involves getting the participation of three more countries during the initial stage — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt — and at a later stage bringing in Syria and Jordan.

Mr. Cohen believes the answer, or one of them, lies in the proposition put forward by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia during the Beirut Arab summit of 2002, when he was still crown prince.

King Abdullah’s peace proposal comes with a face-saving clause for both sides. The Saudi monarch proposes immediate recognition of Israel by all member countries of the Arab League. That, of course, includes Palestine. In other words, if the Saudi proposal is accepted, it would mean that Hamas would also accept recognition of Israel and its right to exist.

In return for Hamas recognizing Israel, Israel would have to accept —in principle — the right of return of Palestinian refugees. This would give Hamas the credentials vis-a-vis its electorate to negotiate with Israel.

This clause is indeed a very thorny issue. The Jewish state fears the sudden influx of several tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees in Israel would dilute the Jewish population, giving the Arabs a demographic advantage. Israel is not about to accept that.

Realistically though, “returning” several hundreds of thousands of Arabs into neighborhoods that are heavily populated by Israelis is a) not a good idea, b) setting the ground for future conflict and c) highly unlikely to win the approval of any Israeli government. This is where Saudi Arabia and Qatar get to flex their financial muscle — and Egypt and Syria their political clout.

In order for this plan to work the following needs to happen.

1. Israel needs to accept a token number of returnees.

2. Hamas needs to facilitate the resettlement of some refugees in parts of the West Bank and abandoned Israeli settlements in Gaza.

3. The host countries where the bulk of the refugees currently live need to be given incentives (Saudi and Qatari money) to allow a certain percentage of the refugees to remain in their countries, though no longer as refugees, but to be granted full citizenship.

According to UNWRA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, as of March 31, 2005, the number of Palestinian refugees (not counting the 961,645 in Gaza and 687,542 in the West Bank), breaks down as follows: Lebanon (400,582), Syria (424,650) and Jordan (1,780,701). Of those, however, not all are resident in refugee camps.

Story Continues →