Ecuador’s presidential vote too close to call

QUITO, Ecuador — Leftist Rafael Correa gained ground over conservative Alvaro Noboa, but the margin remains too narrow to predict a presidential winner, pollsters said yesterday.

A Cedatos/Gallup Ecuadorean voter intention poll was made public yesterday.

“With such results, it is not possible to predict the final outcome of the November 26 election,” the polling institute said of the survey, which has a three-percentage-point margin of error.

But the poll reflected a dramatic surge in support for leftist economist Mr. Correa, who had 41 percent to Mr. Noboa’s 59 percent on Oct. 30. Last week the pollsters had Mr. Correa getting 48 percent, trailing his rival by four points.

Over the past days, both candidates have gone all out to attract undecided voters, which Cedatos/Gallup said accounted for 17 percent of the 9.2 million Ecuadoreans eligible to vote.

Each has warned that his rival’s victory will have disastrous consequences for the South American country, which has had seven presidents over the past 10 years.

Mr. Noboa claims his leftist rival wants to install a communist dictatorship closely tied to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a fiercely anti-American leader. That, he warned, would lead to a bloody uprising.

“Correa wants an insurrection, a civil war in which the poor will die,” Mr. Noboa, 56, told cheering supporters at his final electoral rally on Thursday night.

Mr. Correa for his part claimed that Mr. Noboa, Ecuador’s wealthiest man, would run the country as his private estate.

The leftist warned his supporters to be on the lookout for a repetition of the electoral fraud he claims marred the Oct. 15 first round, which was led by Mr. Noboa.

Both have run populist campaigns, vowing to improve the lot of the millions of Ecuadoreans who live on less than $2 a day in a country that pumps out more than half a million barrels of crude daily.

Bible in hand, falling to his knees and invoking the name of God, Mr. Noboa has vowed that if elected he would build 300,000 homes a year for the poor — an average of almost 1,000 a day.

Portraying himself as a champion of the poor and his rival as “a communist devil,” the conservative billionaire handed out wheelchairs and food and openly distributed cash at his rallies.

Mr. Noboa has said he would encourage foreign investment, tighten ties with the United States and distance the country from Venezuela and communist Cuba.

He also said the 400 U.S. troops stationed at a base in the Pacific port of Manta would be welcome to stay when their lease runs out in 2009.

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