If and when Bush 'Iraqs' Iran

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A strategic thinker who called all the correct diplomatic and military plays preceding Operation Iraqi Freedom now sees diplomatic failure and air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. The war on Iran, he says, started a year ago when the U.S. began conducting secret recon missions inside Iran.

Sam Gardiner, 67, has taught strategy at the National War College, Air War College and Naval War College. The retired Air Force colonel recently published as a Century Foundation Report "The End of the 'Summer of Diplomacy': Assessing the U.S. Military Option on Iran."

President Bush and his national security council believe seven "key truths" that eliminate all but the military option, according to Mr. Gardiner, who adds his own comments:

(1) Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction -- "that is most likely true."

(2) Iran is ignoring the international community -- "true."

(3) Iran supports Hezbollah and terrorism -- "true."

(4) Iran is increasingly inserting itself in Iraq and beginning to get involved in Afghanistan -- "true."

(5) The people of Iran want a regime change -- "most likely an exaggeration."

(6) Sanctions won't work -- "most likely true."

(7) You cannot negotiate with these people -- "not proven."