A hard year to be an Ohio Republican

One of an occasional series

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Any other year, Rep. Deborah Pryce would have wrapped up her race for re-election months ago.

The fourth-ranking House Republican and self-proclaimed “moderate,” Mrs. Pryce has cruised to victory in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District the past six times with at least 60 percent of the vote, in a dead-heat district where President Bush and Sen. John Kerry just about split the vote in 2004.

But this year, with Mr. Bush sliding into disastrous levels in the polls and Republicans in Ohio imploding amid corruption charges and unpopular policies, she is struggling against a boilerplate Democratic candidate whose attacks are similar to those being used across the nation by Democratic challengers.

“This is a referendum on the policies of this current administration,” says that candidate — Mary Jo Kilroy, a Franklin County commissioner from the left wing of the Democratic Party.

Defining moment

The battle for control of the U.S. House runs right through the Midwest, with Democrats making a major bid for two or three Republican-held House seats each in Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana. That means the fate of Republicans’ House majority should be clear soon after 7:30 p.m. on Nov. 7, the closing time for Ohio’s polls, the latest of those three states.

It promises to be a watershed election for Ohio. If Democrats do well, it means this state is the ultimate swing state. But the elections will cement Ohio’s Republican credentials if the Democrats fail to capture any of the major prizes.

Every statewide constitutional office here is held by Republicans as are both U.S. Senate seats and 12 of the 18 U.S. House seats. They include national party leaders Mrs. Pryce, the House Republican Conference chairman, and House Majority Leader John A. Boehner. Republicans also have sizable majorities in both state legislative chambers.

This year, though, Democrats expect major victories up and down the Ohio ballot, leading off with Ted Strickland, a Democratic congressman who is on the verge of trouncing Republican Ken Blackwell in the governor’s race.

Democrat Sherrod Brown also holds a lead in the U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine — one of the seven races likely to determine control of the Senate.

Mr. Brown has attacked the Republican for lost jobs in the state and for his support of the Iraq war in Washington. Mr. DeWine argues that the Democrat has little to show for his seven terms in Congress. A Mason-Dixon poll released Tuesday showed Mr. Brown with a lead of eight percentage points.

All politics is local

Unlike other parts of the country, Republicans’ problems in Ohio are not primarily the national mood or antipathy toward Mr. Bush, who polls above 40 percent in approval ratings, higher than his national average.

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