Front-loading the vote

Presidents Day next February may have a whole new meaning.It’s likely that a third of all presidential primaries and caucuses will be held in the first two months of 2008, which means the parties’ nominees could be known by early February, thanks to an “earlier the better” front-loading strategy emerging on the political landscape.

Critics warn the strategy will bypass many voters and lengthen the general-election campaign well in advance of the November vote.

In the previous primary season, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry effectively nailed down the 2004 Democratic nomination by March 2. But strategists in both parties now say that the nominees next year could be all but chosen by Feb. 5 — when more than a dozen states are considering holding their nominating contests — or by mid-February at the latest.

“We are going to find out who the nominees are a lot sooner than before,” said Art Torres, the Democratic chairman of California. His state recently moved its primary back to Feb. 5.

New Jersey and New York have done the same in a compressed primary movement that is sweeping the country. At least 14 other states appear ready to follow suit, including the mega-states of Illinois, Pennsylvania, Texas and Florida.

“To get a sense of how quickly” the Democratic nominating process could move by Feb. 5, “total the number of delegates that could be at stake by that time,” Mr. Torres said.

A tally of the number of pledged Democratic delegates up for grabs between Jan. 8 and Feb. 5 could total 2,240 (if all the states follow through on their plans to move up their contests). That’s 58 votes more than is needed to win the nomination.

Not all the states have winner-take-all delegate rules, such as the California Democratic primary would, and much depends on how many viable candidates remain in the nominating race for February and how the delegates are apportioned among the top vote-getters.

Nevertheless, a senior Democratic strategist told The Washington Times, “this is going to move very quickly.”

Big names, big boost

This speedup would heavily favor well-funded, well-known front-runners, such as New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who leads her chief rivals for the Democratic nomination, and former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has lengthened his lead for the Republican nomination by double-digit margins, according to most polls.

Campaign advisers say both of them will have more than enough funds to campaign simultaneously in the largest and most expensive media-market states that will likely make up the new “Super Tuesday” sweepstakes on the first Tuesday in February.

But is faster better?

A growing number of critics fear that the looming high-speed nomination process shortchanges voters whose state contests will be held long after the nominations are decided. They also say it works against poorly funded candidates and tilts the playing field in favor of high-name-recognition candidates before most voters know much about them or their agendas.

Story Continues →