Bush’s refrain: ’Surge’ working

President Bush has used a monthlong vacation by the Democrat-controlled Congress to mount a frontal assault on why the U.S. must remain in Iraq, declaring the “surge” of troops a success while also preparing war-weary Americans for a continued military engagement there.

Throughout August, the Bush administration has filled the vacuum with positive news from the war front, culminating with the release of a report last week detailing “measurable” success during the surge of 30,000 troops the president ordered to Baghdad in January.

In addition, Mr. Bush last week laid out a historical case for staying in Iraq using the wars in Vietnam and Korea as examples of premature pullouts, and he has used press conferences with four world leaders during his own vacation to press his case that victory is still within reach.

The onslaught appears to be working. Pollster John Zogby said his firm’s most recent survey, to be released this week, shows “a majority of Americans do not feel the war is lost.”

“His timing is good, not only while they’re not here but also while there’s a little bit of disarray among congressional Democrats in terms of what their message is,” said Mr. Zogby, a self-described liberal Democrat.

“The Democrats are in a state of confusion right now. … They know their base wants to withdraw, but they know geopolitically it’s impossible to just withdraw,” he said.

Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh agreed, saying, “The White House is more effective pushing its message and using public relations than really changing public opinion,” although she added that Mr. Bush faces a greater challenge from “Republicans and military leaders who oppose them rather than Democrats.”

Even though Democrats are in disarray, top Republicans continue to move away from the president’s refusal to set a timetable for bringing troops home.

Sen. John W. Warner of Virginia was the latest defection, and yesterday he said he may support Democratic legislation ordering withdrawals if Mr. Bush refuses to set a return timetable soon.

“I’m going to have to evaluate it,” Mr. Warner said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “I don’t say that as a threat, but I say that is an option we all have to consider.”

But Democrats have had their own battles, with some top presidential contenders breaking ranks with the staunchly antiwar wing of the party. Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, leading the polls in their party’s 2008 presidential nomination race, each declared the surge to be “working” and backed away from calls for immediate withdrawal.

Still, the administration is also quietly preparing Americans for what is expected to be an extended presence in Iraq. Some senior administration officials say the White House is preparing to keep the 160,000 troops in Iraq there into next year, perhaps through spring.

To that effort, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell last week released the latest National Intelligence Estimate, a report stating that changing the mission in Iraq from a counterinsurgency and stabilization role to combat support role “would erode security gains achieved thus far.”

That view likely will be echoed in the mid-September report by Gen. David H. Petraeus, the commander in Iraq who is charged with determining the success of the troop increase and laying out a plan for what comes next. The last increase of troops arrived only last month, and administration officials are preparing to make the case for continuing with the bolstered troops until next year.

Mr. Bush used a speech last week to thousands of war veterans to release new information, saying U.S. forces have killed or captured more than 1,500 al Qaeda terrorists and other extremists every month since January. Democratic lawmakers, who have spent the last three weeks in their home districts, were forced to counter the president through e-mails to reporters.

The president will keep the pressure on, delivering a speech on Iraq tomorrow to the American Legion conference in Reno, Nev.

Although Democratic lawmakers are out of Washington, the party has orchestrated its own onslaught: a 10-week “Iraq Summer” campaign, a $12 million onslaught of TV, radio and billboard ads, picket-line protests and petition drives paid for by AAEI, a coalition of liberal groups including MoveOn.org and Americans United for Change.

Republicans weren’t impressed. Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan said last week “it kind of fizzled” and Freedom’s Watch last week started a $15 million ad campaign aimed at convincing Americans that victory is still attainable.

“This was supposed to be the summer of Iraq,” said Bradley A. Blakeman, a former senior Bush official and now head of Freedom’s Watch.

“What happened to that? The summer’s over. Democrats are hoping for the worst, but people are starting to focus now and see that the glass isn’t half empty, it may be half full,” he said.

Democrats think the president’s offensive, and the efforts by Freedom’s Watch, will also fail.

“President Bush’s week went from bad to worse with Senator Warner calling for a troop withdrawal, a White House front group forced to spend $15 million on an ad campaign to convince Republicans to stick with the president on Iraq and the release of a National Intelligence Estimate underscoring that Bush’s war escalation isn’t working,” said Democratic National Committee Press Secretary Stacie Paxton.