First leg of Crown lacking ‘it’ horse

LOUISVILLE, Ky.

Asked to assess the Kentucky Derby field earlier this week, trainer Carl Nafzger turned the tables on the questioner.

“Tell me one horse who we’re going to throw out?” he asked. “Everybody threw Giacomo out two years ago. It’s a competitive and very wide open field. I think there are 10, 12 horses at least.”

Nafzger, who trains Street Sense, points to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a sign of how strong the Derby is. Six horses from that race are running in the Derby, but that doesn’t mean this is a great race.

As the Triple Crown Series starts today at 6:04 p.m., here are some burning questions:

Q: Nafzger said 10-12 horses can win. You agree?

A: Heck no. This race doesn’t have the “it” horse, one of the reasons why this race doesn’t have the kind of buzz that preceded the 2000, 2001 and 2006 Derbies that had major star power.

In my research for the race, I’ve thrown out Sedgefield, Zanjero, Storm The May, Imawildandcrazyguy, Cowtown Cat, Liquidity, Teuflesberg, Bwana Bull, Sam P and Dominican.

Q: You’ve thrown out half the field (10 of the 20 horses). Who are the big contenders?

A: Street Sense probably will end up as the post-time favorite. If you aren’t worried about value, he’s the best bet. Curlin is the morning-line favorite so he’ll get attention as will Hard Spun, Great Hunter and Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Q: Shouldn’t Street Sense be removed from consideration because of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx?

A: If you are a jinx gambler, don’t bet him. The Juvenile winner has never won the Derby the following year. But as Barbaro showed last year — becoming the first horse with five weeks off to win in 50 years — streaks aren’t meant to be destroyed.

More concerning about Street Sense is that his speed figures have gone down his last three efforts.

Q: Of all the Derby “rules” that have been tossed around this week, which one carries the most legitimacy?

A: Easy — the one about being unraced as a 2-year old. If something hasn’t happened in 125 years, there is generally good reason behind it.

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