Presidential perils

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What would we do without politicians? To begin with, we'd have no one to vote for — and to be honest, sometimes we wish for such a thing. In the end, many of us just are not excited about the people we vote for, and it feels as though they win election because there are so few choices and because we have to elect someone to office. Sometimes we'd love for someone to choose not to seek re-election and open the space for a newcomer as there's always the hope for discovering someone special.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's Islamist-rooted and now two-term prime minister, is perceived as such a politician. He is leading Turkey at a time when the war in Iraq rendered his opposition toothless. There is a popular notion that America may be planning something sinister with regard to the different ethnic groups in the region, be it changing Turkey's sovereign borders or a full-on war with Islam.

Given those circumstances, Mr. Erdogan's Islamist background has become an asset, not a liability. Ironically, the failures of U.S. policy in the region reinforced Mr. Erdogan's popularity at home because the so-called secular and "liberal" politicians failed to adjust to the new environment. When people demanded something new, the secularists thought that scaring voters with the concept of a rising Islamist takeover — like in the past — would be enough to oust the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) from power. When faced with those choices, Mr. Erdogan was the one who seemed "new."

Turks remain at odds over whether Mr. Erdogan has a hidden agenda to Islamify Turkey and tear down the wall between mosque and state. Ironically enough, his promise to keep Turkey on track to join the European Union, when public support for it is at an all-time low, is seen as evidence that he will keep the government secular. When Mr. Erdogan does bring change, it is seen as democratizing and liberalizing the country. But it is not clear whether the secularists' failed "Western" approach was responsible for Turkish public opinion turning against the idea of Western orientation.

If Mr. Erdogan were to face genuine opposition — an opponent with principles who deals in substance rather than creating panic — and if Turkey's already rough neighborhood wasn't complicated further by the war in Iraq, Turks might see him and his policies differently. Right now, Mr. Erdogan looks good because others are woefully inadequate.

Recently, Turks went to the polls for early elections, resulting in a sweeping victory for Mr. Erdogan's party. The election was early election because former Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer's term was over. Although Mr. Erdogan backed down from running for his post — which many thought he wanted to do — he supported Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, who also has an Islamist background. Since the Turkish Parliament elects the president, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) blocked the vote and challenged the voting at the Constitution Court. The AKP agreed to adopt the opposition's idea to change the law and allow the people, rather than Parliament, to elect the president.

In the meantime, the military released a warning on its Web site during the height of these debates in April, now acknowledged as the one and only "e-coup." Turkey has experienced three previous military coups, leaving behind a complicated legacy. What's more, millions protested Mr. Gul's candidacy. Yet AKP's sweeping victory in the general national elections in July secured Mr. Gul as president, and he was appointed by Parliament on Aug. 28. Complicating matters: the High Election Board has already set a date, October 21, to consider the AKP's request to change the law and allow the people to elect the 11th president — except that he is already being appointed by the parliament. So Mr. Erdogan requested that the referendum go ahead, to apply to the next election — in five years.

Mr. Gul's presidency lay in the hands of the opposition. What happened? The National Movement Party (MHP), which during the July election passed the 10 percent threshold to be the third party represented in parliament, decided to support Mr. Gul. In other words, they were the ones to secure Mr. Gul's presidency.

Even morestunningly, the CHP — the party boycotting Mr. Gul's presidency and its leader, Deniz Baykal who refuses even to shake hands with Mr. Gul — demands that the referendum be cancelled, lest the legality of Mr. Gul's presidency be questioned. Just what was this whole ordeal about, really? Mr. Gul's presidency is not without questions, but given the opposition's inexplicable arguments, the legitimacy of his presidency should no longer be open to debate. The challenge is now for the military. For how long will they be able to deny Mr. Gul's wife, who wears an Islamist style headscarf, a place in official receptions?

If the secular Turks are worried about the AKP's possible hidden agenda, the way to handle it is to seek changes in the opposition parties' leadership, in hopes finding someone special; someone who can make better, solid, substantial arguments. Until then, Mr. Erdogan will continue to easily retain his popularity.

Tulin Daloglu is a freelance writer.