Paul supporters vow to fight

LAS VEGAS | Dueling delegations pitting Ron Paul’s Nevada supporters against those of John McCain vow to take their fight to the Republican National Convention.

That’s just one sign that the outsider, Internet-fueled movement led by the feisty Republican congressman from Texas remains afloat in the wake of the Arizona senator’s victory in the Republican primaries.

In the libertarian-leaning West, where Mr. Paul’s message of distrust of the federal government and ardent individualism played particularly well, there is talk of Republicans straying from Mr. McCain. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr has emerged as a favorite alternative for Paul activists, followed by Constitutional Party candidate Chuck Baldwin.

Even if the numbers of such dissenters are small, they could spoil Mr. McCain’s chances in tight contests in key Western states, experts say.

“In Nevada, there’s absolutely enough to have an effect on the election,” said Chuck Muth, a leading conservative activist in a state where early polls show Mr. McCain and Democratic candidate Barack Obama in a statistical tie.

“I think that you will see not just Libertarians, who always vote for the Libertarian candidate, but conservative Republicans saying we’ve had it, we’ve had enough, and they’re going to go ahead and vote Libertarian,” Mr. Muth said.

Mr. Paul ran as the Libertarian Party nominee for president in 1988, but this year he carved out a following as an anti-establishment Republican. His campaign won more than 1 million votes and became a catchall for antiwar, anti-government voters and disaffected Republicans.

The eclectic coalition racked up significant numbers. Mr. Paul placed second - ahead of Mr. McCain - in Republican caucuses in Nevada and Montana. He posted strong showings in nominating contests in Colorado, Washington and Oregon. In early June, he pulled away 14 percent of the vote from the already certain nominee in the New Mexico primary.

This is the West Mr. McCain must win.

The interior West generally has been friendly territory for Republicans seeking the White House. Nevada, Montana and Colorado voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.

However, history also warns of the impact of feisty Texans who preach small government.

“There’s little doubt Bill Clinton would not have won Montana if it weren’t for Ross Perot,” said Bob Brown, a senior fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana. “And I think it’s clear those votes were Republican.”

The same could be said of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, states where the two-time independent candidate for president is often given credit for Mr. Clinton’s breaking a two-decade-long Republican presidential winning streak in 1992.

The McCain campaign says it expects many Paul voters to come home to the Republican Party before Nov. 4.

“At the end of the day, Republicans are going to vote for John McCain. He’s a Western candidate who understands water issues, land issues. He’s a fiscal conservative,” said Rick Gorka, a campaign spokesman. “His message is appealing to a broad spectrum of voters.”

Story Continues →