YOUNG: A long-term advantage

OPINION:

COMMENTARY:

Make no mistake: after the November elections, conservatives’ glass is less than half full. But the glass isn’t empty.

While the short-term may be politically tough, it could also be shorter than many now think. The longer-term ideological and economic trends will continue to favor conservatives. Put simply, conservatives are right and they are particularly right for America, if conservatives but have the vision to see it.

As heralded as it has been, Barack Obama’s election was more stunning for Democrats than damning for Republicans. Mr. Obama won 52.5 percent of the popular to Mr. McCain’s 46.2 percent. That is remarkable… for a Democrat. Mr. Obama was only the second Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the popular vote since Franklin Roosevelt did so in 1944. During that time, seven Republicans have done so: Dwight Eisenhower twice, Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan twice, George Bush I in 1988, and George Bush II in 2004.

As for Congress, yes, Republicans lost seats, but their figures are roughly comparable to those when George Bush I took office in 1988. Comparatively their congressional prospects were worse then because - with their party’s president in office - they also faced the historical trend of losing seats during the mid-term elections (which they did). In 2010, that shoe will be on the Democrats’ foot - and to shake it off, Democrats will have to take seats from Republicans for a third consecutive election, something not done since 1932-34-36.

Perhaps an even greater advantage lies in the fact that as a minority in Congress and without their president in the White House, Republicans will not longer be responsible for governing. This frees them to take stands that draw sharp political contrasts with the Democrats - precisely the thing a minority must do to gain on the majority. Furthermore, any failures over at least the next two years redound to their opponents. The economy is just such an opportunity.

Yes, the economy is bad now and attributed to Republicans because it coincided with George W. Bush’s presidency. While some imagine the economy is cyclical and its upswing will coincide with the Democrats’ ascendancy, that’s hardly assured. There is nothing cyclical in the unprecedented current housing and financial crisis.

The economy requires a benign neglect from government during the best of times and adroit handling during the current ones. If mishandled, it is unlikely the American public will long accept blaming Mr. Bush as a response. Even if successfully handled, economic growth is not nearly as strong harbinger of political success as economic downturns are of political failure - recall Democrats’ massive defeats in 1994, despite a growing economy.

Yet more significant for conservative confidence than these near-term political opportunities are the longer-term ideological ones. Regardless of those attempting to recast it, America remains an inherently conservative country. The ideal of limited government was enshrined at the United States’ Founding. The Constitution is the quintessential document of negative liberty. It is an expansive enumeration of citizens’ power and a parsimonious list of the government’s.

And this has not changed. Except for two amendments - the 16th allowing the income tax and the 18th enacting Prohibition (repealed just 14 years later) - all amendments have expanded citizens’ rights and limited government’s. Yes, activist liberal courts have sapped some of its full intended vigor and strengthened government, but they have not yet detached it from its conservative moorings or the people from their inherent attachment to its limiting principles.

Yet it is in liberal overreaching that conservatives’ greatest advantage lies. To propose bigger government is to play with fire. Like any organism, government seeks to perpetuate and propagate itself. Combined with this “organic” tendency is the fact that government is America’s only unregulated monopoly. In the private sector competition, or its threat, limits and regulates the private sector. As a result, scarce resources limit action: when an endeavor’s marginal return reaches $0, it ceases.

But in the public sector, nothing - except the Constitution and ultimately, the will of the people - limits the federal government. The government does not compete for income - but taxes for it. It thereby harbors the illusion that resources are unlimited, because they are infinitely easy to get. It therefore can and will pursue laws, regulations and taxes in excess of the goals to be obtained. Thus, once unleashed, bigger government and its backers inherently overreach.

And in overreaching, reach over into the electorate - its income, businesses and lives. So the pendulum will inevitably swing back toward conservatives. The only question is when and how far.

This does not mean conservatives can be complacent. They must tailor their message of limited government to their times and its issues, but this can certainly be done - just as in the past.

In short, conservatives will win because they are right. How long it takes for Republicans to realize this and embrace it - that is another issue.

J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001-04 and as a congressional staff member from 1987-2000.