Has the minivan run out of gas?

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By Karen Goldberg Goff THE WASHINGTON TIMES

The minivan says many things. Among them, I have kids, the kids have friends and we all have lots of stuff.

For more than a decade, the humble minivan has been the workhorse of the suburban thoroughfare. It is a vehicle that is decidedly unglamorous, but sturdy and utilitarian, much like the soccer mom at the wheel.

Another thing the minivan has never been: great on gas. So with fuel at $4 a gallon and climbing, has the minivan's day come and gone? Will the family sedan make a comeback? How about the station wagon of years gone by? Will the sensible shoe of cars finally go out of fashion?

If you look at the numbers, it is already on its way out. Sales of new minivans have fallen steadily from a peak of 1.4 million in 2001 to 970,708 in 2006 to 793,335 in 2007, according to Ward's AutoWorld, an auto industry news and data group.

This year, sales are expected to be around 600,000, the lowest since 1985. So far this year, sales are down 14 percent compared with the same period in 2007. Meanwhile, General Motors and Ford are not manufacturing minivans anymore, leaving only about eight models from which consumers can choose.

Several factors are at play, says Csaba Csere, editor in chief of Car and Driver magazine. Take the high cost of gas, which is affecting everything from groceries to family vacations. Add to that cautious consumers, as well as ones who would prefer to graduate into driving something that doesn't scream "MOM" quite as loudly, and you have a segment of the auto industry in transition.

"The price of gas is basically affecting everything," says Mr. Csere, pointing out that most minivans get about 16 miles per gallon. The most fuel-efficient minivans get 21 to 23 miles per gallon in the city and about 22 mpg on the highway. "But the overriding factor when it comes to vans is that big vehicles use more gas. Linebackers eat more than jockeys. As prices go up, people are downsizing."

Even before prices at the pump skyrocketed, downsizing had begun for some families. Crossover vehicles - think Honda CRVs, Toyota RAV-4s and Subaru Foresters - have sold well the first half of this decade, filling a niche for families who want a place for all that stuff. Many crossovers and small sport utility vehicles have third-row seat options, making seating possible - if not totally comfortable - for seven passengers.

But for some families, however, it's still $80 fill-ups be damned. The minivan will rule until the last child goes to college.

"I own one and I hate to say it, but I like it," Ward's AutoWorld executive editor Tom Murphy says. He and his family, which includes kids ages 12 and 15, have a well-loved Kia Sedona van.

"It's not about the dynamics," Mr. Murphy says. "You can't beat the versatility. If you have to haul seven people around, there is no more efficient way to do that."

Seriously, for all those who malign the minivan, remember that its doors open automatically. Little ones can stand up and climb into bucket seats (separated for maximum sibling fight control) themselves. You can throw a full-size bicycle into the back or change a toddler's diaper on the floor without hitting your head. Buckets of toys can be stored on the floor. There are cupholders built for water bottles and juice boxes. Heck, you can order the new Dodge Grand Caravan with not one, but two, DVD players.

What's not to like? Laurie Levine of Reston, Va., recently had to replace her 10-year-old Chrysler Town & Country van. With children ages 7, 10 and 13, she says she did not consider buying something other than a van. She bought a 2008 Toyota Sienna last spring. It's not about the aesthetics; it is about carpooling.

"Really, what the heck else could I drive?" Mrs. Levine says.

Says Mr. Csere: "If you have a big family, the minivan is the most economical car out there. What's changing is the families with two kids who thought they needed a minivan. It may have made life easier, but with gas at $4 a gallon, they are willing to give up that convenience and shift to a smaller model. When fuel economy counts, people change priorities."

Mr. Csere says the same trend is happening with pickup trucks. Plumbers and contractors who really need the hauling space will always need a pickup; those who bought them just because they liked them are likely to get frustrated at 12 mpg, he says.

Mr. Csere predicts a return to more families buying sedans such as Toyota Camrys and Honda Accords. Still far in the future are hybrid minivan models. Toyota sells a hybrid model in Japan, but has not said when or if it will go on the market in the United States. Mazda, which sells the Mazda5 small minivan in the United States, currently is testing a hydrogen hybrid minivan in Japan.

Mr. Csere says a hybrid minivan option has not been on the table here because hybrid technology reached the mass market around the same time the minivan's target audience began to grow tired of the vehicles.

"The minivan peaked about five or six years ago," he says. "Then it came to be that many moms did not want to be seen in one, so car makers put their money and marketing into hybrid crossovers like the Toyota Highlander and the Ford Escape. The minivan is just a shrinking segment.

"However, if gas prices stay high," he says, "I would expect we'll see a hybrid minivan in the next few years."