The presidential hopefuls last year staked their bids on Iraq, but a tumultuous economy has dominated the political conversation and forced them to keep a focus on the kitchen-table issues voters will consider in the fall.
Both Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama - though on opposite sides of the war - pushed Iraq as a campaign issue early on, but their agendas were hijacked as gas prices crept ever higher, the U.S. faced six straight months of job losses and dismal economic conditions lingered in critical swing states.
The economy may not be the strong suit for either candidate, but it has been a repeated theme of campaign stops and ads and looks to continue to be the top issue for voters leading up to the Nov. 4 general election.
Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, on Monday said he would balance the federal budget by 2013, although he backed away from that position earlier in the campaign.
Mr. Obama, the Democrats’ presumptive nominee, also is laser-focused on the economy after months of campaigning with a promise to bring troops home from Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Monday suggested that the leaders of the war-torn country might help expedite that process.
Mr. al-Maliki suggested in a meeting with Arab ambassadors that he was considering the creation of a “memorandum of understanding for the departure of forces or a memorandum of understanding to set a timetable for the presence of the forces, so that we know [their presence] will end in a specific time.”
Mr. Obama called the remarks “encouraging” and said Mr. McCain and President Bush should listen to the Iraqi leader. Mr. McCain, meanwhile, said his rival was “all over the map” on Iraq and should spend his time listening to Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of U.S. and allied forces, and the troops on the ground when he visits Iraq later this summer.
The Iraq war remains unpopular, but an improving situation has pushed the candidates to focus more on domestic issues.
From the fluctuations of Wall Street and the global markets that are reverberating on Main Street to gas prices that have increased the cost of food and getting to work, the candidates are navigating difficult territory amid partisan bickering.
Republicans say Mr. Obama will raise taxes and Democrats paint Mr. McCain as an extension of an unpopular president who only wants to help the rich.
Some analysts predict that the candidate’s proposals won’t matter and that pocketbook issues will persuade voters to change the party controlling the White House.
“The Democrats haven’t been in power for eight years, so the Republican Party bears the burden of taking this poor economic performance into the election,” said Alexander Lamis, associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. “This is an issue that’s ready made for the out party.”
A CNN poll shows that 75 percent of voters think the U.S. economy has slipped into a recession and that Americans feel about as pessimistic today as they did 16 years ago when Bill Clinton defeated incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll from September 1992 showed just under 80 percent of voters said the country was in a recession.
“Voters are in a sour mood and, if history is any guide, they are going to take out their anger on the Republicans. These numbers are a huge danger sign for John McCain,” said Alan Silverleib, the network’s senior political researcher.
On Monday, Mr. McCain spoke to voters in Denver and pushed his plan for a gas-tax holiday while excoriating Mr. Obama’s economic plan.
“If you believe you should pay more taxes, I’m the wrong candidate for you. Senator Obama is your man,” the Arizona Republican said, laughing.
He promised to cut taxes “where I can,” and vowed that if elected he will “veto every single bill with wasteful spending.”
Mr. McCain rattled off a laundry list of ways he thinks Mr. Obama would raise taxes - from the estate levy imposed posthumously on the rich to the capital gains tax - and said the Democrat would “hurt the economy even more, and destroy jobs across this country.”
The Republican also said Mr. Obama had voted to raise taxes since in March and June this year he supported a budget blueprint that would increase income-tax rates for an individual earning less than $32,000 per year. Mr. Obama disputed that claim because the budget did not include an actual tax bill, and scoffed at the rest of the McCain accusations.
“If you’re a family making less than $250,000, my plan will not raise your taxes. Not your income tax, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes,” Mr. Obama told reporters.
Mr. McCain said he would tackle Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid to balance the federal budget within five years of taking office.
If Mr. Bush’s tax cuts are extended, as Mr. McCain proposes, the deficit would be about $440 billion in 2013.
Mr. McCain said he would double the child deduction from $3,500 to $7,000 and cut the estate tax. He also said his plan to build 45 more nuclear plants would create 700,000 jobs.
Mr. Obama has said he will create “green” jobs and put people to work making homes more energy efficient and in the growing solar, wind and biofuel industries.
Mr. Obama was scheduled to begin a campaign tour of states Mr. Bush won in 2004, but trouble with his campaign charter plane forced him to scrap a planned event in Charlotte, N.C.
He instead called in to offer his recipe for boosting the economy, telling the voters gathered for the event that “help is on the way.”
Mr. Obama said his economic plan will lay the groundwork for long-term economic growth and that he would offer a second tax-stimulus package to give families short-term relief. He said he would cut taxes by $1,000 for 95 percent of workers and eliminate income taxes for seniors earning less than $50,000. He also would offer a series of tax credits for education and child care, and said his health care plan would help all Americans save money.
Mr. Obama said Mr. McCain “trusts that prosperity will trickle down from corporations and the wealthiest few to everyone else. I believe that it’s the hard work of the middle-class American family that fuels this nation’s prosperity.”
The Democrat said promising to veto lawmakers’ pet projects known as congressional earmarks stuffed into larger spending bills is not enough to eliminate the deficit. He charged his rival is offering nothing more than a “regurgitation” of Republican plans from the past two decades.
The campaign back-and-forth Monday on an issue that tops Americans’ worries was the latest in weeks of barbs from each candidate. Some argued that Mr. Obama can still use his opposition to the war to lay out an economic agenda.
Thomas Davidoff, an assistant professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley, characterized the McCain deficit plan as “empty” because he does not talk about the serious spending cuts that would be necessary to eliminate it given the two wars the U.S. is fighting overseas.
“He’s saying he will accomplish something without any specifics,” Mr. Davidoff said, agreeing that the Democrats are better positioned to capitalize on economic woes.
“Typically when the economy has performed poorly for the few years before the election, the incumbent party has lost,” he said.
Democratic strategist James Boyce said Mr. Obama would be wise to keep linking the economy to the war.
“You can’t be funding hundreds of billions of dollars in a war and cut taxes, but that’s what Bush did for the first time in our history,” he said. “It’s destroyed the economy.”
Please read our comment policy before commenting.