It’s the economy, not the war, that drives ‘08 voters

The presidential hopefuls last year staked their bids on Iraq, but a tumultuous economy has dominated the political conversation and forced them to keep a focus on the kitchen-table issues voters will consider in the fall.

Both Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama - though on opposite sides of the war - pushed Iraq as a campaign issue early on, but their agendas were hijacked as gas prices crept ever higher, the U.S. faced six straight months of job losses and dismal economic conditions lingered in critical swing states.

The economy may not be the strong suit for either candidate, but it has been a repeated theme of campaign stops and ads and looks to continue to be the top issue for voters leading up to the Nov. 4 general election.

Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, on Monday said he would balance the federal budget by 2013, although he backed away from that position earlier in the campaign.

Mr. Obama, the Democrats’ presumptive nominee, also is laser-focused on the economy after months of campaigning with a promise to bring troops home from Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Monday suggested that the leaders of the war-torn country might help expedite that process.

Mr. al-Maliki suggested in a meeting with Arab ambassadors that he was considering the creation of a “memorandum of understanding for the departure of forces or a memorandum of understanding to set a timetable for the presence of the forces, so that we know [their presence] will end in a specific time.”

Mr. Obama called the remarks “encouraging” and said Mr. McCain and President Bush should listen to the Iraqi leader. Mr. McCain, meanwhile, said his rival was “all over the map” on Iraq and should spend his time listening to Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of U.S. and allied forces, and the troops on the ground when he visits Iraq later this summer.

The Iraq war remains unpopular, but an improving situation has pushed the candidates to focus more on domestic issues.

From the fluctuations of Wall Street and the global markets that are reverberating on Main Street to gas prices that have increased the cost of food and getting to work, the candidates are navigating difficult territory amid partisan bickering.

Republicans say Mr. Obama will raise taxes and Democrats paint Mr. McCain as an extension of an unpopular president who only wants to help the rich.

Some analysts predict that the candidate’s proposals won’t matter and that pocketbook issues will persuade voters to change the party controlling the White House.

“The Democrats haven’t been in power for eight years, so the Republican Party bears the burden of taking this poor economic performance into the election,” said Alexander Lamis, associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. “This is an issue that’s ready made for the out party.”

A CNN poll shows that 75 percent of voters think the U.S. economy has slipped into a recession and that Americans feel about as pessimistic today as they did 16 years ago when Bill Clinton defeated incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll from September 1992 showed just under 80 percent of voters said the country was in a recession.

“Voters are in a sour mood and, if history is any guide, they are going to take out their anger on the Republicans. These numbers are a huge danger sign for John McCain,” said Alan Silverleib, the network’s senior political researcher.

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