Speculation rife in VP sweepstakes

There will be breathless speculation, short lists and long lists as Democrats and Republicans in the veepstakes are vetted and weighed in the next two months. Yet the choice for the No. 2 slot rarely matters.

Pundits will analyze demographics and states that might just swing for one candidate with the right choice. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton can help Sen. Barack Obama win over women, they will muse. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist will make sure the crucial Sunshine State remains in the Republican column for Sen. John McCain, they will ponder.

For all the fuss over who the presumptive nominees will select next month, recent history suggests a vice presidential choice won’t impact the results of race for the White House.

“This is not an open vote; this is a decision of one person,” former Vice President Dan Quayle told The Washington Times in an interview.

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Vice President Dick Cheney is fond of joking that President Bush chose him to deliver Wyoming’s whopping three electoral votes.

Sen. John Kerry was applauded for choosing an optimistic Southern boy who could deliver states that usually go to the Republicans.

The reasons abound for why it didn’t happen - John Edwards didn’t even win his home state of North Carolina - but the fact remains that his presence on the ticket factored little when voters headed to the polls.

“That’s not the way it works anymore, thanks to the TV age. Picking someone because of the state they are from is totally antiquated,” said campaign veteran Simon Rosenberg of the liberal think tank NDN.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe perhaps tipped his hand last month during a briefing with reporters in Washington when The Washington Times asked if he philosophically believes a vice presidential pick can deliver a state.

“We certainly don’t want to pick someone who will hurt,” he quipped and cited Mr. Cheney as an example of how states have not mattered in recent elections. He also noted that Al Gore’s coming from Tennessee did not tip the balance for Bill Clinton in 1992 because Mr. Clinton would have won the state anyway.

“I don’t think that’s going to be a factor in the selection,” Mr. Plouffe said.

He added that the most important factor would be whether the person was qualified and would be “a partner in governing,”

Mr. Quayle similarly identified the factors for selection and ranked any geographic or demographic considerations last behind being qualified to be president, loyalty and comfort.

“The first two things are so much more important. Geography can be a factor, but it’s not a critical factor,” he said, even though hailing from Indiana helped him get the job in 1988.

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