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Independents put Obama ahead in N.H.

By Joseph Curl (Contact) | Tuesday, July 29, 2008

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ROCHESTER, N.H. | Sen. John McCain, who held more than 100 town-hall meetings in New Hampshire before his surprising win in the January primary, often joked that he spent so much time in the state many people thought he lived here.

But if that's so, the independent-minded, politically savvy voters of this swing battleground state just may have a new favorite son.

"What we've seen in all the polling since springtime is a swing from a McCain lead to an Obama lead," said Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.

That swing was dramatic, at least as portrayed by the Rasmussen polling firm. Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, held a 10-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama at the end of April, but a mid-June poll put the Democrat up by 11 points - a swing of 21 points. A pair of UNH polls have Mr. McCain going from six points up to three points down against his Democratic rival.

"Once again, the swing group is those independents," Mr. Scala said, "and I don't think they're done moving yet."

Although the small state wields just four votes of the 539 electoral votes up for grabs Nov. 4, Mr. McCain made clear last Tuesday that he plans to make a serious effort to pick them up in the fall.

"This is going to be a battleground state. This will be one of those states that decides who the next president of the United States is, and I need your support," Mr. McCain said at the Rochester Opera House, where hundreds of supporters drowned him out with cheers.

Trends, however, are all going the other way. Republicans reached a crest in 2002 but have been falling out of power ever since - for the first time in 58 years, Democrats control both state legislative chambers and the governor's mansion.

Voter registration, too, has tilted heavily toward Mr. Obama. Just after the November 2004 election, there were 267,000 registered Republicans in the state to 228,000 registered Democrats. That gap has been almost erased: Earlier this month, Republicans held just a 5,000-voter edge, at 269,000 to 264,000.

"That's the number that jumps out at me. Republicans have basically stagnated, and Democrats have made big gains. McCain and Obama both have their strengths, but if you're looking at which way the political winds are blowing, they're certainly blowing in Obama's direction," said Mr. Scala, a longtime observer of state politics.