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Barr's presidential bid makes solid GOP states competitive

By Stephen Dinan THE WASHINGTON TIMES | Thursday, June 5, 2008

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Bob Barr's Libertarian presidential campaign is poised to play a serious role in this year's election, with early polls showing him taking enough votes from Sen. John McCain to give Democrats a chance to win states that should be safely Republican.

Polls in Georgia and North Carolina over the past two weeks show Mr. Barr winning 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively, of the presidential vote. That would help keep presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama within striking distance of Mr. McCain in those states, which together account for more electoral votes than Florida, Pennsylvania or Ohio.

"Barr does throw a monkey wrench in Republican plans in states people otherwise take for granted as Republican states," said Matt Towery, chief executive officer of InsiderAdvantage, an Atlanta-based polling and political analysis firm that conducted the Georgia poll, and one-time political adviser to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Mr. Towery said North Carolina and Georgia have large black populations that Mr. Obama can tap to boost his turnout numbers, and both have conservative-leaning voters whose dissatisfaction with President Bush could lead them to a third-party candidate.

The Georgia poll, taken just before Mr. Barr secured the Libertarian nomination, gave Mr. McCain 45 percent support, Mr. Obama 35 percent and Mr. Barr 8 percent. In North Carolina, a Public Policy Polling survey released Monday found Mr. McCain at 43 percent, Mr. Obama at 40 percent and Mr. Barr at 6 percent. The poll's authors said Mr. Barr's support appeared to come particularly from independents who previously broke for Mr. McCain.

"It's a long way until the election, but the early indication is that Bob Barr's presence on the ballot could be a good sign for whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. "He's likely to siphon off more voters who would otherwise be inclined to vote for McCain than he is from Clinton or Obama."

North Carolina hasn't gone to a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Georgia last supported a Democratic nominee in 1992 when Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton grabbed its support en route to the Oval Office.

Mr. Barr is a former Republican congressman from Georgia who switched to the Libertarian Party in 2006. He collected his new party's presidential nomination on the sixth ballot on May 25.

Republicans said they are waiting to see whether Mr. Barr turns out to be like Ross Perot or more like previous Libertarian candidates who failed to crack more than 1 percent.

"It's too early to tell what kind of candidacy Bob Barr is going to have," said Brent Woodcox, a spokesman for North Carolina's Republican Party. He said he also has questions about how the poll was conducted, but that Republicans will try to compete for every vote, particularly among independents who are shaping up to be more important than ever.