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EDITORIAL: Hillary redux?

By | Sunday, June 15, 2008

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John McCain is seemingly imitating the campaign strategy Hillary Clinton used against Barack Obama during the Democratic primaries and caucuses. Like Mrs. Clinton, Mr. McCain is emphasizing his experience and foreign-policy credentials. His campaign is also mirroring her campaign focus on winning big states, courting swing voters, and wooing the white, blue-collar vote. Mrs. Clinton achieved some success with this formula. Yet in the long run, her strategy failed. Why, then, is Mr. McCain adopting an approach that ultimately failed for Mrs. Clinton?

* Experience: Mrs. Clinton stated throughout her campaign that Mr. Obama did not have sufficient experience. Exit polls from the Democratic primaries and caucuses revealed that the majority of voters agreed with Mrs. Clinton. Voters nonetheless concluded that he has good judgment and is a capable leader. Also, change mattered more to them than experience.

Mr. McCain is touting his many years of experience. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reveals that the majority of voters state that Mr. McCain is indeed more experienced than Barack Obama. Yet they regard Mr. Obama as more likeable and inspirational. By a margin of 54 percent to 42 percent, voters declare that they prefer a candidate who will bring "greater changes" rather than one who has more experience.

* Foreign policy: During the campaign, Mrs. Clinton repeatedly stated that Mr. Obama would not be an effective commander-in-chief. In February, she launched the infamous 3 a.m. campaign ad. However, Mrs. Clinton's emphasis on her foreign-policy credentials backfired. It led to highlighting her 2002 vote in support of the Iraq war resolution - a war that the majority of Americans are weary of. It also led to placing her foreign policy record in the spotlight. As a result, any gaffe in this area received much press coverage. Recall her statement that she landed in Bosnia, in 1996, under sniper fire. Video footage surfaced revealing that she arrived peacefully and was greeted by a young girl. The press and public lampooned her as a liar. Also, in March, when her schedule as first lady was released to the public, it was clear she had been little more than her husband's informal adviser during his presidency. In short, Mrs. Clinton appeared weak and inconsequential in foreign affairs - an area she had claimed was one of her major strengths. By the time she refocused her campaign message on the economy, it was too late.

Similarly, Mr. McCain is touting his foreign policy credentials. And this, too, puts attention on the Iraq War - which 68 percent of Americans oppose. Also, Mr. McCain's foreign policy gaffes - such as confusing Sunni and Shi'ite, declaring that American troops might be in Iraq for "one hundred years," and stating that it is not "too important" to bring the troops home but to keep them from harm's way - are magnified by the media. The rest of his message is drowned in the roar. Simultaneously, Mr. Obama's campaign is deftly linking Mr. McCain's foreign-policy credentials to an unpopular war, an unpopular president and the "failed politics of the past."

* Big states and swing voters: In her campaign strategy, Mrs. Clinton focused on the big states. She tried to woo swing voters such as Jews, Hispanics and women. She did indeed succeed in winning many of the big states and she won the support of the majority of swing voters. Yet, she still lost the overall pledged delegate count and the superdelegate count.

Mr. McCain, is still campaigning as though we were in 2000 or 2004 - as though the 2008 Democratic primaries had not occurred. Was he awake during the Democratic primaries? Like Mrs. Clinton, he too is focusing on battleground states and swing voters. Indeed, he needs to make these efforts. However, he cannot take the conservative base for granted - which he has yet to secure. He must also have a broader national strategy that attracts new voters.

* White, blue-collar voters: Mrs. Clinton was successful at the end of her campaign in courting white, blue-collar voters. She emphasized pocketbook issues, portrayed Mr. Obama as an elitist and - to the nation's horror - played the race card. Her campaign rebounded in the final months. She won West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico by large margins.

Mr. McCain is attempting to woo the white, blue-collar vote with his economic platform and his straight-talk personality. Mr. McCain is trailing Mr. Obama by a margin of 42 percent to 47 percent with blue-collar voters. The Arizona senator has a slight lead with white voters, 47 percent to 41 percent. Will this be enough to win the election when it was not ultimately sufficient for Mrs. Clinton?

Mr. McCain has yet to grasp that the old electoral map and the old politics are dead. In interviews held recently at The Washington Times, leading Republicans, such as former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and Rep. Tom Davis, drew attention to Republican deficiencies. They called for greater party cohesion and better campaign planning. Mr. McCain should heed their advice.