Clinton holding edge in Ohio, new poll finds

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama by 52 percent to 40 percent in a poll of Ohioans likely to vote in the state’s Democratic primary tomorrow, a Suffolk University poll released last night found.

The poll, conducted Saturday and yesterday, also suggests Ralph Nader again could be a spoiler for Democrats.

The Clinton lead of 12 percentage points is good news for the New York senator because it’s two percentage points beyond the poll’s error margin of five percentage points, said Suffolk pollster David Paleologos.

“The bad news is it is not enough of a margin, however, for her to take a lion’s share of the state’s delegates unless she wins Ohio on Tuesday by 60 percent to Obama’s 40 percent — possible, but not probable,” he said.

Mrs. Clinton needs to overcome Mr. Obama’s overall delegate lead, and the math of the remaining Democratic primary contests make that a difficult prospect.

Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont also have Democratic contests tomorrow. If Mrs. Clinton splits the delegates with Mr. Obama after voting in those states is complete, she will likely trail Mr. Obama of Illinois by about 110 delegates, Mr. Paleologos said.

That would suggest the superdelegates (party officials and Democratic elected officials) who have not pledged to either candidate or who can be persuaded to switch from one to the other will decide the Democratic nominee before the Democratic National Convention in August.

Mr. Nader, the consumer advocate who last week said he will run as a third-party candidate, would hurt Democrats’ chances of taking the White House more if Mrs. Clinton rather than Mr. Obama were the nominee, the poll showed.

Voters in the Ohio primary said they may switch to him in the November election if Mr. Obama is not the nominee.

“Older men support Hillary in Ohio, the only instance where age and gender buck the general trend in the Clinton-Obama matchup,” said Mr. Paleologos. Young women support Mrs. Clinton in the Ohio poll.

“So it looks like she is headed toward a win in Ohio at least on Tuesday, but when all is said and done, the contest, for all the intended transparency, will likely be decided in a smoke-filled room, figuratively speaking, by superdelegates,” said Mr. Paleologos.

Of those surveyed, 54 percent ranked the economy as the most important issue, followed by 21 percent who said the war in Iraq was their No. 1 issue, and 15 percent naming health care.

Ohio voters don’t register by party and a handful of the 400 likely voters surveyed said they identified themselves with the Republican Party.