A region essential to peace

The vast Middle East region, with its convulsions and the distressing, complex and seemingly endless Israeli-Arab conflict, has long been under stress.

European strategists know indeed the importance of this region for peace and prosperity in the world and more particularly in Europe. Nicolas Sarkozy’s proposal for a unified Mediterranean space is an interesting prospect for some, a historic necessity for the most clear-sighted, and an outright fantasy for others, for the region is passing through quite opposing currents.

On the one hand, no one can deny the existence of a much-felt process of modernization. The integration of universal values is ongoing, but clashes blatantly with an identity withdrawal as inextricable as it is tortuous.

These societies have developed innumerable antagonisms even among themselves, resulting in the emergence of nationalist movements and their repercussions that, albeit declining, have left their indelible marks. The most symptomatic manifestation of these atavisms is the longstanding Moroccan-Algerian conflict.

Algeria, Polisario’s protector from the beginning, wants to expand its influence to the Atlantic and thus weaken its perennial Maghreb rival, Morocco. They, in turn have complex and often passionate links with Europe. Algeria and France, Morocco and Spain make up quite peculiar couples, whose self-interest and the so-obvious common interests are often guided by resurgences from the past, in the form of passionate, latent or explicit crises.

The historic reasons are well-known: French colonization and the war for the liberation of Algeria, 14 centuries of history between Morocco and Spain. From Andalusia to the autonomous Spanish cities in North Africa of Ceuta and Melilla, these two nations have had cross-linked and mixed destinies, for best and for worst.

However, everyone on the two rims of the Mediterranean knows the future hinges on cooperation. Europe relies upon the southern rim and its necessary development, seeing it as a means to deepen its market. It also knows its security, in the face of terrorism and all kinds of trafficking, closely relies on this region’s development. The countries south of the Mediterranean, while awaiting regional integration, even in these times of globalization, are totally dependent on Europe for their development.

This reality of interdependency is imposed on all and it has made utterly ridiculous any identity-withdrawal attempts. But even beyond this, it is in the field of values that more optimism is appropriate.

In the countries to the south of the Mediterranean, despite cultural atavistic behaviors it has become quite clear that democracy, tolerance and openness are the choices of the largest part of society. Yet appearances are often deceptive.

Fundamentalism and its natural outgrowth of terrorism are a reaction to and rejection of modernity. This phenomenon, grounded on both local and international factors, is but a convulsion in the eyes of history. Societies are really keen to gain access to modernity.

It is definitely through development and democratization that this region will contribute to peace in the world, and certainly not by exacerbating nationalisms. This is not wishful thinking; it is a historic reality.

On the other hand, without democracy and development these societies will continue to secrete the breeding grounds of Islamic terrorism.

While democratic forces exist in these countries, they are between a rock and a hard place. In Tunisia, they have made the disastrous choice to hide behind the regime and not confront the Islamist threat. The inconsistencies of Europe (the natural and presupposed ally) may strengthen this trend.

In Algeria, where President Abdelaziz Bouteflika braces himself for a constitutional change to gain access to a third mandate, and where all elections have seen rampant gerrymandering, the authorities are always giving assassins amnesty and not eradicating terrorism.

In Morocco, democratization is the fruit of a consensus, which makes its flowering necessarily longer and less spectacular. This does not in any way diminish the commendableness of an experience strengthened in an adverse environment.

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