Pennsylvania demographics resemble Ohio

The Democrats’ next major showdown is unfolding in the unexpected battleground of Pennsylvania, a sprawling and diverse state with huge constituencies of older, blue-collar and union voters — a terrain likely to favor Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign.

Voters there closely resemble the Clinton base that fueled her comeback wins Tuesday over rival Sen. Barack Obama in the Ohio and Texas primaries. Mr. Obama easily won yesterday in Wyoming and is expected to do the same in Mississippi on Tuesday.

The Keystone State particularly resembles Ohio, where Mrs. Clinton trounced Mr. Obama by a 10 percent margin, 54 percent to 44 percent, and handily won white voters, people who didn’t graduate from college, low-income workers and union households.

“The demographic makeup is relatively similar, a lot of blue-collar families who are part of the steel-mill age,” said John Brabender, a Republican strategist in Pittsburgh. “I have yet to come across anyone who thinks anyone other than Hillary Clinton is going to win the Pennsylvania primary.”

Voters in Pennsylvania — who expected the nomination would be decided on Super Tuesday Feb. 5, long before they go to the polls on April 22 — share Ohio’s sudden relevance in the race as well as their common struggle to shake off an antiquated industrial economy.

Once known for its mighty steel, coal and railroad industries, it’s now part of the “Rust Belt,” though it is faring better than others. Its largest employers are the federal government, state government and Wal-Mart. But unlike Ohio, where Mrs. Clinton benefited politically from voters’ fears about their state’s sagging economy and high jobless rate, Pennsylvania boasts steady job growth and a 4.8 percent unemployment rate — about the national average.

A similarity to Ohio is the state’s persistence as a union stronghold with 1.4 million union members and union retirees — more than 10 percent of the population and one-third of households, according to the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO. The median household income is $43,714, below the national $44,334 median figure. Senior citizens make up a share of Pennsylvania’s voters topped by just two other states.

Mrs. Clinton has “better demographics” in Pennsylvania “that run deeper than in Ohio,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll in Lancaster, Pa. The poll showed her up 12 points last month, when her campaign nationally was on the ropes.

“At this moment, she comes in as the favorite. [Mr. Obama] is the underdog,” he said.

A Rasmussen Reports survey last week showed Mrs. Clinton ahead by 15 points. Other polls have shown Mr. Obama cutting her lead down to five percentage points.

In past contests, Mr. Obama’s chief advantage has been his popularity among young voters, the highly educated and blacks. These advantages will not count as much in Pennsylvania.

According to U.S. census figures for 2006, Pennsylvania’s population is heavy with retirees (15.2 percent of Pennsylvania’s population is 65 or older, compared to 12.4 percent nationally), light on college graduates (22 percent of the state’s adults have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with a national average of 24 percent), and whiter than average (85.7 percent white and 10.7 percent black, versus 66.4 percent and 12.8 percent, respectively).

Blacks are heavily concentrated in the state’s two major urban centers, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where Mr. Obama is expected to focus his campaigning.

Although something has to break in this race, Pennsylvanians have a poor record on electing women and blacks. Women make up only 13 percent of the state legislature, compared with a 23 percent national average. Blacks make up 8 percent of the legislature, close to their proportion of the population. The congressional delegation has only one woman and one black.

Pennsylvania has trended Democratic in recent elections but it remains a potential swing state, which President Bush narrowly lost in 2004 by 2.5 percentage points. The state Senate is controlled by Republicans, while Democrats cling to a one-vote majority in the House.

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