Taiwan's straits of reality

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While the United States and many European nations have recognized Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia, China has indicated it will avoid any precedent that could be applied to Taiwan.

In fact, in 2005 China's National People's Congress passed an "anti-secession law" that said: "Both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China's sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division." This anti-secession law explicitly authorizes the Chinese government to "employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures" if Taiwan unilaterally declares its independence.

With Kosovo's declaration, Taiwan is again on the front burner as an international issue. The Taiwanese presidential election in March 2008 and the referendum on United Nations' admission offer stark evidence that Taiwan's ambiguous status will be given careful examination.

Much has changed in the China-Taiwan relationship in the last few decades. First, China-Taiwan trade was at roughly $120 billion in 2007 up from $2 billion at the end of the 1980s. More than half of Taiwan's outbound investment goes to China. Taiwan is either No. 4 or No. 5 in direct investor status on the mainland.

Moreover, around 25 million Chinese are employed in Taiwanese businesses on the mainland, leading to a level of integration unimaginable a decade ago. Surely this integration moderates, to some degree, China's military buildup across the straits. But China's adamant position vis-a-vis Taiwan overlooks the current reality.

Taiwan is an advanced economy that recently replaced Australia as the 16th wealthiest nation on the globe. It's 23 million population is larger than three-quarters of the member states of the United Nations. Its role in design and manufacture of the iPhone among other advanced consumer products is the envy of most Asian states. And since 1988, when martial law was suspended, it has had a vibrant democracy with vigorous competition between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The idea that Taiwan is a "renegade province" — an expression often used by Chinese leaders — overlooks the evolution of this island nation. At the outset, when Chiang Kai-shek took 6 million adherents to Formosa, there was little doubt these people identified themselves as Chinese who at some point had a vision of returning to the mainland. Over time, however, this identification has changed.

Today, when asked about their identity, more than 70 percent of the island's people say they are Taiwanese. Not only has Taiwanese nationalism effloresced, but the disparity between Taiwan's per capita income of $28,000 and China's at $1,800 is a vivid reminder to Taiwanese that communist leadership in China is not what they want to embrace.

While the KMT is somewhat more accommodationist toward China than the DPP, it is not willing to modify the status-quo. It does suggest tourism and cultural ties should be encouraged to promote further understanding with the vague suggestion the two states may be united in some (distant) future.

In what one may call a contrast rather than a nuanced position, the DPP embodies the nation's newly discovered nationalist fervor. It argues that Taiwan has more to offer China than the reverse. Former President Chen Shui-bian engaged in rhetorical flourishes about independence that alarmed the White House and infuriated China. But these comments reflected more de facto nationalism than de jure separation.