Taiwan’s straits of reality

While the United States and many European nations have recognized Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia, China has indicated it will avoid any precedent that could be applied to Taiwan.

In fact, in 2005 China’s National People’s Congress passed an “anti-secession law” that said: “Both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division.” This anti-secession law explicitly authorizes the Chinese government to “employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures” if Taiwan unilaterally declares its independence.

With Kosovo’s declaration, Taiwan is again on the front burner as an international issue. The Taiwanese presidential election in March 2008 and the referendum on United Nations’ admission offer stark evidence that Taiwan’s ambiguous status will be given careful examination.

Much has changed in the China-Taiwan relationship in the last few decades. First, China-Taiwan trade was at roughly $120 billion in 2007 up from $2 billion at the end of the 1980s. More than half of Taiwan’s outbound investment goes to China. Taiwan is either No. 4 or No. 5 in direct investor status on the mainland.

Moreover, around 25 million Chinese are employed in Taiwanese businesses on the mainland, leading to a level of integration unimaginable a decade ago. Surely this integration moderates, to some degree, China’s military buildup across the straits. But China’s adamant position vis-a-vis Taiwan overlooks the current reality.

Taiwan is an advanced economy that recently replaced Australia as the 16th wealthiest nation on the globe. It’s 23 million population is larger than three-quarters of the member states of the United Nations. Its role in design and manufacture of the iPhone among other advanced consumer products is the envy of most Asian states. And since 1988, when martial law was suspended, it has had a vibrant democracy with vigorous competition between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The idea that Taiwan is a “renegade province” — an expression often used by Chinese leaders — overlooks the evolution of this island nation. At the outset, when Chiang Kai-shek took 6 million adherents to Formosa, there was little doubt these people identified themselves as Chinese who at some point had a vision of returning to the mainland. Over time, however, this identification has changed.

Today, when asked about their identity, more than 70 percent of the island’s people say they are Taiwanese. Not only has Taiwanese nationalism effloresced, but the disparity between Taiwan’s per capita income of $28,000 and China’s at $1,800 is a vivid reminder to Taiwanese that communist leadership in China is not what they want to embrace.

While the KMT is somewhat more accommodationist toward China than the DPP, it is not willing to modify the status-quo. It does suggest tourism and cultural ties should be encouraged to promote further understanding with the vague suggestion the two states may be united in some (distant) future.

In what one may call a contrast rather than a nuanced position, the DPP embodies the nation’s newly discovered nationalist fervor. It argues that Taiwan has more to offer China than the reverse. Former President Chen Shui-bian engaged in rhetorical flourishes about independence that alarmed the White House and infuriated China. But these comments reflected more de facto nationalism than de jure separation.

Taiwan’s stance is in fact an ambiguous one between independence and reunification. Were independence actually declared, it might serve as a casus belli for China. If reunification were to be a short-term policy, any Taiwanese government advocating it would fall. Hence there is a delicate minuet between the two rival positions with neither in the ascendancy, despite an occasional minor tilt in one direction or the other.

There is a growing international perspective that time is on China’s side, but I see it differently. Fissures in the Chinese economy and a totalistic political system indicate dictatorial party control and the free market are incompatible. Should China go through a form of democratization, the Taiwan question could easily be addressed. A democratic China might hold genuine gravitational pull for Taiwanese who, despite nationalistic sentiment, still retain transcendent ethnic ties to China. Or more likely, a democratic China would simply maintain close relations to Taiwan with the latter serving as a political model to be emulated. Perhaps under these circumstances a confederation could be entertained. Therefore the key to the resolution of the so-called Taiwan Straits issue is patience on the part of Taiwan and a belief that at some point liberalization in China will open a host of opportunities.

The United States should play a significant role in this political equation. After all, the United States is the only nation with the military strength to offset an adventurous gambit by China across the Taiwan Straits. Even if America’s military interests in Asia recede, the United States must maintain a military umbrella for Taiwan so the force of liberalization can gain a foothold in China. If I am correct, Taiwan needs time and the United States can provide it.

American leaders should continually send a message to Chinese officials that a military solution for what China calls its Taiwan problem is unacceptable, even if China refuses to take the military option off the table. Taiwan deserves our support and China must realize that missiles bristling in Fijian Province and its increasingly menacing blue-water navy will not deter the U.S. defensive commitment to Taiwan.

At the moment, Taiwan feels isolated. The penumbra of China is palpable. China’s growing influence on the world stage, which includes blandishments for those who renounce Taiwan and implicit threats for others is keenly felt by Taiwanese officials. Nonetheless, 24 nations presently recognize Taiwan and the island nation’s technical assistance program in Latin America and Africa can generate new friends.

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