Funding McCain's campaign

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John McCain's fund-raising report for March revealed that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee had returned nearly $3 million in contributions that had been earmarked for the general election. That action sets the stage for Mr. McCain to accept the $84 million in public financing for the general election. The money will be available after the Republican Party's convention in early September.

Presidential candidates who accept public financing for the general election cannot raise funds from private donors. Thus, Mr. McCain's decision also sets the stage for the Republican nominee to be grossly outspent throughout the fall campaign, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. It is almost certain that neither Barack Obama, whose campaign has already raised more than $250 million, nor Hillary Clinton, whose campaign coffers are already bulging with about $25 million that can only be spent during a general-election campaign, will join Mr. McCain in accepting public funding. Tellingly, at a Monday luncheon with reporters and editors at The Washington Times, an otherwise loquacious Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), spoke haltingly before he demurred and declined to comment about Mr. McCain's apparent decision to accept public funding.

Why would Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton take public funding? Either Democrat will easily be able to raise triple the $84 million that Mr. McCain will receive from taxpayers. During the first quarter (i.e., before the deluge of online contributions that followed her 55-45 victory in the Pennsylvania primary), Mrs. Clinton raised $60 million from the Internet. In March alone, she raised nearly as much over the Internet ($15 million) during her uphill battle for the nomination as Mr. McCain raised in total ($15.2 million) for the month. And the Clinton campaign is a piker compared to the Obama campaign's Internet pipeline. Yes, Mr. Obama once toyed with the idea of accepting public funding (and its draconian financial limitations) for the general election; but that was before he turned the Internet into the equivalent of the money presses at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing.

If a political stiff like then-presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry could raise nearly $180 million in individual contributions during the five months before the 2004 Democratic convention, how much could Mr. Obama raise during the June-October period, especially if he becomes the presumptive nominee after the Democratic primary season ends June 3? Another quarter billion? No sweat. And that's triple Mr. McCain's $84 million.

Mr. McCain apparently intends to lean heavily on the RNC, whose fund-raising during the first 15 months of the 2007-08 cycle exceeded the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) receipts by $51 million. But the RNC's cash-on-hand advantage over the DNC at the end of March was only $26 million, virtually unchanged from its cash-on-hand advantage four years earlier. Over the next nine months in 2004, however, the DNC under Terry McAuliffe, who is now chairing Mrs. Clinton's campaign, raised $330 million as Democratic donors desperately sought to defeat President Bush. After four more years in Iraq, will those donors be any less interested in defeating Mr. McCain, who was Mr. Bush's strongest backer throughout the 2004 campaign and has been the biggest hawk on Iraq ever since?

Intending to become extremely dependent on the RNC may prove to be a very bad move by Mr. McCain. The RNC already faces a major challenge to partially bridge the ever-widening gap between Democratic and Republican fund-raising committees for senators and representatives. As they did during the 2005-06 cycle, New York Sen. Charles Schumer and his party fund-raising committee for Senate candidates are running circles around their Republican counterparts. On the House side, Republican fund-raisers raised $40 million more than their Democratic counterparts during the 2005-06 cycle (and $93 million more during the 2003-04 cycle). But during the first 15 months of the 2007-08 cycle, the Democratic committee for representatives achieved a $22 million fund-raising advantage. At the end of March, the Democratic committee had $44 million in cash compared to the Republicans' $7 million. Any help Mr. McCain expects from the RNC, whose fund-raising already is $34 million below its 2003-04 take at comparable stage, may not be there.