McCain's quest for the Hispanic vote

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In order to remain competitive in the general election, John McCain will have to perform a Herculean task: Court the Hispanic vote without alienating the base of the Republican Party.

Maverick McCain is currently viewed with suspicion by both camps. Hispanic immigration activists insist that Mr. McCain's current proposal which emphasizes enforcing the border first and then establishing a temporary worker program is insufficient. On the other hand, many conservatives will not support Mr. McCain if he appears weak on immigration.

Mr. McCain will have difficulty winning a general election without Hispanic support. Their vote is essential in states such as California, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. President Bush was elected in both 2000 and 2004 due in large part to his ability to woo Latinos: he secured 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000 and 44 percent in 2004. However, since the failure of the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill last year, 57 percent of registered Hispanic voters are now Democrats whereas 23 percent are Republicans.

Hispanics are the nation's largest minority group, consisting of 47 million people or 15 percent of the American population. The electoral clout of Hispanics is diminished by the fact that 44 percent are not citizens and are ineligible to vote. Also, Hispanics are not universally opposed to securing the border. Yet an overwhelming majority strongly disapprove of immigration enforcement procedures such as workplace raids, police who actively identify illegal immigrants and verification of immigration status prior to providing a driver's license.

In an effort to attract Latinos and stem the tide of Hispanic disenchantment with the GOP, McCain's camp unveiled a Spanish web site this week, as reported by the Washington Times. The task of attracting Hispanics, while difficult, is not impossible. The majority of Latinos have conservative values; those beliefs can be used to the GOP's advantage. Mr. McCain's current tougher stand, which puts security first and denies blanket amnesty, is a good first step. Building a solid Latino coalition that can effectively communicate his plan — a plan that will ensure safety, security and a fair path to legal citizenship — is the next and most crucial one. In addition, Mr. McCain must recognize that Latino values are American values; he must clearly articulate his positions as a reflection of mutually shared convictions.

Should Mr. McCain and the GOP fail to face this reality, it will be at their peril — leading inexorably to electoral defeat.