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Freshman disorientation

Phenoms won't rule this season

By Barker Davis (Contact) | Friday, November 7, 2008

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For the first time in a while, prepare to see a relatively bear freshman market in college hoops.

After the institution of the NBA's minimum age requirement following the 2005 draft, college basketball enjoyed perhaps the most impressive two-season freshman explosion in the history of the sport.

From Greg Oden and Kevin Durant in 2006-07 to last season's bumper crop of can't-miss talents Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love and O.J. Mayo, freshmen have made an impact in the college game like never before in the last two years. They have established new statistical standards, earned first-team All-America honors and played a major role on three of the last eight Final Four teams.

This season, however, likely will mark a sharp departure from that trend.

"This [freshman] class looks a lot more like the groups we were getting before the minimum age requirement in that it lacks obvious superstars," said Rob Harrington, the editor and lead recruiting analyst for PrepStars.com. "When you watched guys like Beasley or Rose or Durant, you saw that jaw-dropping ability every time they took the floor. I didn't see that with anyone in this class. Brandon Jennings might have been the closest, and that's why he ended up on top of our rankings."

But Jennings decided to spend his mandatory one-year, post-prep apprenticeship playing for pay. The 6-foot-1 point guard and one-time Arizona commitment signed with Lottomatica Roma of the Italian Serie A League Italy in July.

So which of this season's newcomers will prove to be the bluest chip? Though there doesn't seem to be a Durant or Beasley in the bunch, here's a closer look at the consensus top-10 freshmen in the land and a best-guess performance forecast.

BUY

Jrue Holiday, UCLA

Joining Darren Collison and Josh Shipp in arguably the nation's strongest backcourt, the 6-3 Holiday is reminiscent of Dwyane Wade with his quickness, athleticism, high basketball IQ ... and somewhat suspect jumper.