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Chavez-Russia gambit signals need for U.S. moves

By Stephen J. Flanagan and Johanna Mendelson Forman SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES | Wednesday, November 19, 2008

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ANALYSIS/OPINION:

The arrival of a Russian naval squadron and anti-submarine aircraft in the Caribbean for exercises with the Venezuelan navy next week will mark Moscow's first significant military deployments in the Western Hemisphere since the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

However, this exercise presents a political rather than a serious military challenge to the United States.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and the Russians see the exercise as a provocative way to challenge U.S. influence in Latin America and what they describe as Washington's "unipolar vision."

It also allows Mr. Chavez to push his accusations of a growing U.S. threat to the region and his notion that Latin American leaders should look elsewhere for security partners.

The United States can't just continue efforts to isolate Mr. Chavez or dismiss Russia's involvement in his dangerous game, particularly a growing arms trade. Countering these trends will require sustained U.S. engagement in hemispheric affairs and new partnerships with our southern neighbors to address common security concerns.

Mr. Chavez and the Russians seem to recognize that their posturing, which played well opposite the Bush administration, will have less traction against a President Obama, who is committed to a new era of activist diplomacy and more nuanced strategies for dealing with the hemisphere and a resurgent Russia.

The day after the U.S. election, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened countermeasures if the U.S. proceeded with construction of missile defenses in Europe. But in a subsequent speech in Washington, he expressed hope that he and Mr. Obama could overcome accumulated problems in bilateral relations.

Mr. Chavez set aside inflammatory rhetoric, at least for a day, and welcomed "a respectful discussion" with the new U.S. president.

The Russians are leveraging their relationship with Mr. Chavez for a larger geopolitical gambit. Moscow wants to put Washington on notice that if the U.S. continues to support neighbors of Russia such as Georgia, which Russia claims as part of an exclusive sphere of influence, it is prepared to intrude in the U.S. backyard.