TYREE: German ‘earthquake’

COMMENTARY:

Recent developments in German state elections may portend an eventual loss of power for the moderate Christian Democratic Union party led by Angela Merkel, which presently governs in a Grand Coalition with its long-term socialist rival, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The election outcome was attributed to growing economic worries.

That’s the prognosis in a nutshell of Professor Lothar Probst, president of the Institute for Intercultural and Intellectual Studies at Germany’s University of Bremen. Mr. Probst told an Oct. 1 gathering at the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies in Washington that the Bavarian election a week ago, in which the CDU’s sister party, the Christian Social Union, suffered severe setbacks symbolizes “many problems, trends and directions for [larger] German political forces.” Newspapers reported the Bavarian outcome as a “Revolution” and “political earthquake,” from the most conservative, economically successful and largely pastoral southern German state famous for beautiful Alpine scenery, Oktoberfest and “gemuetlichkeit,” or cordiality.

“Bavaria is no longer a stable island in an uncertain sea of the German political system,” Mr. Probst observed. He suggested many Bavarians have come to feel that the CSU has lost touch with ordinary Bavarians and their needs. The CSU long enjoyed political hegemony in Bavaria - indeed an absolute majority in election returns since around 1970 - due to a dyed-in-the-wool Bavarian identity, strong organization, political leadership and social programs with an appeal across religious divisions. Because of its linkage with the CDU, the CSU managed to translate its potent regional party position into a strong federal role.

This time, however, the CSU found itself faced with a new challenger: the Free Voter Association which is also deeply rooted in Bavarian culture, unlike other non-CSU parties, and this in a period of declining voter participation generally.

Mr. Probst saw the Bavarian shakeup (the state’s governor resigned in the election’s aftermath) as part of an ongoing structural change in the German party system. That system has evolved from the CDU/CSU-SPD dichotomy to a three party system involving the Green Party and seems to be tending to a “five party system.” A proliferation of political parties in an economy suffering globalization ills, with unemployment as high as 19 percent in the key seaport of Bremerhaven, would create greater challenges in forming effective coalition governments. Mr. Probst said future governments will be coalitions “involving at least three parties. The time of one-party government in Germany is over.”

He also discussed the successful march of the militant left westward from the politically more volatile former East German states. “The economic situation is different than 20 years ago,” he said, citing the “erosion of traditional occupational structures.” Mr. Probst added: “Social justice is back on the agenda.” Protest voters have tended toward the Linke, or far-left party. Though normally that party has not found hospitable ground in Bavaria, it may pass the parliamentary representational threshold of 5 percent there as well.

The Social Democrats, on the other hand, may bid fair to form a left coalition national government if their own vote rises to the 40 percent level - where they would need only relatively small increments from other parties to form a governing majority in parliament. One option the SPD is eyeing that would avoid another Grand Coalition with the moderate-to-right CDU is a “traffic light” coalition - red for the socialists, yellow for the liberal Free Democratic Party, and green for the center-left ecology-minded Green Party.

Mr. Probst said factors working in favor of Mrs. Merkel retaining the chancellorship include her personal appeal in a politics increasingly geared to personalities rather than specific parties. This appeal is rooted partly in her professional, “presidential” style in office and an image as a “factor of stability.”

A change toward the SPD in German politics may pose no immediate or special challenges if Barack Obama is elected president in November. On the other hand, Mrs. Merkel has repaired much of the fraying in U.S.-German relations that occurred under her SPD predecessor Gerhard Schroeder, who vocally opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

The rise to power of a left-leaning German government could reintroduce some relationship challenges with a John McCain administration. About 80 percent of Germans polled favor withdrawal of German forces from Afghanistan, which could create problems for Mr. Obama as well as Mr. McCain, both of whom have advocated seeking more German and other allied help in Afghanistan.

Benjamin P. Tyree is deputy editor of the Commentary pages of The Washington Times.