Polling the pollster

John Zogby stepped into the national political spotlight when he called the 1996 presidential election precisely and was the only pollster to do so. Both before and since he has polled for news media, corporations, non-profit organizations and political campaigns. This book represents a distillation of what he has learned about the American people over decades - and how he expects them to behave in the future. He is a perceptive and thoughtful social commentator.

Mr. Zogby’s writing style is open and upbeat. He writes, “What is the [American] common denominator? … it’s our shared values. We roll this way. We roll that way, but our values are steady . .. They are who we are; who we want to be.” In this way, he uses both the social observer’s eye and his own experience living what can best be called a “grass-roots” lifestyle. His company has always been based in Utica in upstate New York. He speaks warmly of growing up there and has a strong family life. (His grandfather, a Lebanese immigrant, owned a grocery store in Utica.) His love for the country comes through often.

From his polling data, the author seeks to give us a picture of what kind of a country we shall have. The generation born since 1980 - what he calls the First Globals - doesn’t agree with the statement “My country right or wrong.” They have been exposed to products and cultural forms from all over the world and want plenty of choice in these. They aren’t opposed to same-sex marriage, take a middle position on abortion between “pro-choice” and “pro-life” and favor free trade (Democrats take note).

The First Globals´ attitudes are not surprising when one considers that many of them have been exposed in school to the notion that patriotism is passe, that all disputes can be settled by discussion and that there is no right or wrong, only different opinions.

There are contradictory strains in today’s polity, however. Young Americans are brand conscious, sort of ultra-consumers, he says, noting that by kindergarten they can identify 300 product logos. One of his 2005 polls has one-third of the respondents saying that “owning things” was very important to their self-esteem.

While the desire for individual choices and expression is great (he cites the popularity of the Internet’s YouTube and Facebook), the author emphasizes that there is a growing demand for “authenticity.” He writes, “Americans have overdosed on baloney,” which may explain in part why the approval rating of Congress, for example, is so low.

He says that there is a “vast chasm between the global-minded young adults and the leaders who govern the nation,” and contends that “For First Globals, the American Century is already over and the Whole Earth Century has begun.” As he does throughout the book, he uses survey data to buttress his assertion.

Mr. Zogby also identifies a new demographic, what he calls “secular spiritualists.” He says it it is not a voting bloc, but could become one. For people in this group, he says, “Success isn’t climbing the corporate ladder; it’s finding peace within.” He contrasts this growing demographic with the shrinking hold that “mainstream” religions have on Americans and implies that it will continue to grow, with spiritual life becoming more and more individual.

All of this ties in with the author’s conclusion: “A new American dream characterized by lower expectations, less want, and more civility has begun to emerge; and as that has happened, a new American consensus is being born.” He marvels at the resilience of the American character in the face of adversity. Whether he is correct about his “new American consensus” only time will tell.

“The Way We’ll Be” is not without stylistic flaws. The author uses hoary cliches such as “kicking and screaming.” He uses the word “media” (always plural) as if it were singular, uses the verb “construct” as a noun and the word “conflict” as a verb (as in “conflicted”). These errors are common among bureaucrats and journalists, but unexpected of serious social commentators. Nevertheless, it is an engaging book and worth reading.

Peter Hannaford, a longtime public affairs consultant, is the author of “Recollections of Reagan.”