Bookies bank on Obama win

Forget the pollsters. Look to the bookies.

Ireland’s largest bookmaker, Paddy Power, on Thursday declared the U.S. presidential race over and paid out bettors banking on a Barack Obama victory.

“We’re certain Senator Obama will become President Obama so we’re paying out over 1,000,000 euro on him to win the election,” it said.

Before the payout, Sen. John McCain’s odds of winning the presidency stood at 5-1, while Mr. Obama was a heavy favorite at 1-9. That means a $10 bet on the long-shot Republican could win $50; a $10 wager on the heavily favored Democrat will pocket just $1.10.

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“Look, if this were a two-horse race, one horse would be so far in front that the horse in second place could hardly see him,” said bookie spokesman Ken Robertson.

The latest European odds on the presidential campaign paint a gloomier picture than American pollsters, and the bookmakers see the chance of a McCain comeback dropping daily.

The odds changed sharply after Sept. 15, when the U.S. financial crisis hit critical mass. Just before the Wall Street meltdown, Mr. McCain was at almost even money, 11-10 odds; Mr. Obama at 4-6 - favored, although not by much. But two weeks later, the Democrat was at 2-7, then this last week, the odds changed daily - 1-4, then 1-5, 1-6 and 1-7 before jumping to 1-9.

Mr. Robertson said he couldn’t get much action either way: Mr. McCain’s odds were too high to draw savvy bettors, while Mr. Obama’s were so low that it wasn’t worth the effort - wagering $90 would bring in just $10.

“We were hardly taking a bet. McCain was friendless - nobody wanted to back McCain,” Mr. Robertson said.

Back in the states - where gambling on elections is barred, even in Las Vegas - pollsters and election analysts are starting to move Mr. McCain toward long-shot status.

“I don’t see how this one can be turned around, frankly,” said presidential historian Stephen Hess.

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