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Leadership vacuum feared after Abbas

Term ends in January; Fatah, Hamas can't agree on elections

By Joshua Mitnick | Saturday, October 25, 2008

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TEL AVIV | A constitutional crisis is brewing in the Palestinian territories that could make the dim prospects of Arab-Israel peace even more remote.

The four-year presidency of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas ends Jan. 8 and, so far, his Fatah party and Hamas haven't reached agreement on the terms for a new presidential election.

Palestinians fear a failure to resolve the crisis could embolden Hamas, which took over Gaza 20 months ago, encourage political violence and further undermine the Abbas-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

"There is a political crisis of legitimacy," said Sam Bahour, a Palestinian businessman and political analyst. "Abbas has already proven that he is willing to stretch the law as much as possible to avoid a political vacuum, and the question is whether he will do it again now. People are very worried about what comes next."

Egypt this week formally invited Hamas and Fatah representatives to a Nov. 9 summit in Cairo to try to reach a compromise, but months of Egyptian mediation efforts have thus far been fruitless.

Egypt is reportedly pushing for the sides to agree on a national unity government. If there is no agreement by Jan. 9, it would leave the Hamas-dominated parliament -- effectively disbanded by Mr. Abbas after the 2006 Gaza takeover -- as the sole elected representatives of the Palestinians.

Also on the agenda are Hamas demands to be included in the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the umbrella Palestinian nationalist governing body long dominated by Fatah.

The sides are also expected to discuss control of security forces and a formula that would allow a Hamas-Fatah unity government to meet international demands for recognizing Israel, forswearing violence and honoring past agreements. Hamas has rejected these conditions so far.

Fatah officials have sought to delay presidential elections until the end of parliament's term in 2010, citing a clause in the Palestinian Authority constitution requiring presidential and parliamentary elections to be held at the same time.

A national unity government should set a date for presidential elections at the earliest date possible and "reorganize the Palestinian domestic reality," said Hanan Ashrawi, a Palestinian legislator and former peace negotiator.