Md. slots unlikely to hit budget figures

State trends, new study see revenue shortfall

By Tom LoBianco (Contact) | Monday, October 27, 2008

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ANNAPOLIS | The odds are that slot machines in Maryland will have difficulty generating the millions of dollars projected by gambling supporters, based on national trends and experiences in other states that have long used gambling to supplement spending.

Officials from states that legalized slot machines more than a decade ago said they found that revenue decreases unless more machines are added and hours of operation are extended, which presents a problem in Maryland because the slots plan caps the number of machines at 15,000 and assumes they operate 365 days a year.

A study released weeks before Marylanders will vote in a Nov. 4 referendum on whether to approve slot-machine gambling shows that the state's plan to collect $660 million is based on "optimistic" assumptions, including one that residents who have been playing slots in Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will start gambling exclusively in Maryland, slots critics say.

In addition, analysts say, the Mid-Atlantic region, like some Midwestern states, may reach market saturation if the pool of new gamblers stops expanding and states are left fighting over existing players.

"This could all be a wash," said state Comptroller Peter Franchot, who is among the state's most vocal slots opponents.

West Virginia and Delaware - two Maryland neighbors that slots supporters say have long siphoned Marylanders' money - for the first time in more than a decade recently posted decreases in gambling revenue.

As Gov. Martin O'Malley, a Democrat, campaigns for the slots as the only way to pay for mandated increases in education spending, the referendum easily could become the goose that lays a lead egg for Maryland.

Hundreds of seniors daily board buses leaving Baltimore and Prince George's County for racetracks in Delaware and West Virginia and casinos in Atlantic City, N.J.

Mr. O'Malley, his budget team and legislative analysts acknowledge that, to plug the state's budget gap, every passenger would have to stop playing out of state and return to Maryland with their money.

But the owners of local tour bus companies say such a change is unlikely.

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