OPINION:
COMMENTARY:
Bustling San Salvador, capital of Central America’s smallest state, bears little resemblance to 18-20 years ago, when the city was fraught with insecurity and daunting danger.
Despite a grueling civil war waged on the extreme left by FMLN guerrilla/terrorists, the tattered economy staggered on, wracked by bombings, kidnappings and assassinations.
Elections in January for legislative and municipal posts, and in March for the presidency pit the FMLN (Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front) against the ARENA (Republican Nationalist Alliance) party and have effectively become referendums between supporters and opponents of Hugo Chavez’s bid to control of Latin America’s political future.
El Salvador is the last right-of-center government in Central America, with flagging Mexico (see “Mexico on the brink?,” The Washington Times, Sept. 25, page A20). The country numbers some 6 million inhabitants, and has risen from its wantonly destructive civil war in the 1980s and early ’90s to become, with Panama and Costa Rica, an important stabilizing force, in contrast to Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala.
An FMLN victory would stretch a radical red socialist, liberal-left leaning line from Ecuador through Central America to hapless Mexico. The linkage would have far more than political-economic impact: A virtual highway would exist for narcotics shipments to North America.
Running against ARENA, in power for 20 years, the FMLN has put forward as its presidential standard bearer a well-known television personality, Mauricio Funes. With a carefully blurred political profile, the leftist Mr. Funes has sought to overcome FMLN’s revolutionary socialist reputation, as he campaigns at set-piece rallies and on television, a ruse proving difficult to maintain during his nearly yearlong campaign.
Mr. Funes has attempted to keep his vice presidential running mate, Salvador Sanchez Ceren, out of the public eye. For good reason: Mr. Sanchez Ceren was an FMLN commanding general during the civil war and particularly brutal aspects of his terrorist career are coming to light.
Moreover, it is an open secret that Mr. Chavez has made significant financial contributions to the FMLN campaign. This has become a mixed blessing, with a recent poll showing 86 percent of Salvadorenos opposed to a government closely aligned to the Venezuelan dictator.
As recently as June, polls showed FMLN leading ARENA by more than 20 points. A mix of mistakes by FMLN and the coming together of previously contesting ARENA factions has cut the difference to just 4 points and ARENA leaders express confidence they will overtake the Funes-Sanchez Ceren ticket in the weeks ahead.
Most confident of all is Rodrigo Avila, ARENA’s presidential candidate. Soft-spoken and unpretentious, Mr. Avila served for 10 years in the country’s National Civil Police force, with 20,000 employees the country’s largest enterprise, public or private. As chief for eight years, Mr. Avila had a reputation for incorruptibility and an appetite for taking the lead in dangerous situations.
Mr. Avila agrees with many Salvadorenos that his candidacy is not typical, but he is determined to bring fresh approaches to campaigning and to solving the country’s many challenges. The former is relaxed and personal; the latter embraces a uniquely multifaceted concept.
Rodrigo Avila is at his best campaigning one-on-one or speaking in person to groups. The day we talked, he had shaken hands and chatted with some 1,200 voters and taken photos with more than 700 of them. “I have neither the training nor inclination to be a media star. I like to move among voters and talk with them, and they seem to like it, as well.
“We have a clear understanding of the issues facing the country - health care, education and work opportunities; security, the environment. We have programs that address each of them and I discuss them, every day. But I also believe we must focus on something not normally mentioned - values. It may not be the usual thing to do, but today it is especially critical,” he said.
“Like most countries in the region, El Salvador suffers from corruption, throughout government and the private sector. Corruption is more than morally wrong: it is bad business, because it greatly inhibits economic growth. Every private dollar that is spent illegally - immorally - is a dollar that is not invested in building a business, in training a worker, in paying his or her salary. Every government dollar that is not wasted can be invested in schools, medical dispensaries, security and the environment.
“Our country has recovered remarkably well since the civil war years. We have rebuilt our infrastructure and are considered one of the most business friendly countries in the hemisphere. We have the lowest poverty rate in Central America, 30 percent compared to about 45 in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua - but that is still much too high.
“If we slash corruption in its many forms, government and business can invest millions of dollars in programs that directly help our people, and I am committed to it,” Mr. Avila said.
An Avila commitment should be taken seriously. In the closing months of the civil war, Rodrigo Avila, then the country’s youngest police chief, was involved in 23 lethal interactions with diehard guerrilleros, and wounded twice. He showed similar grit in urban encounters, once single handedly overpowering “cuantos” - armed intruders who had robbed and were threatening to rape a lone woman in her home.
By the time he attended the FBI Academy in Quantico, Va., Mr. Avila found it largely redundant to the diverse challenges his police career had provided him. Asked how this kind of background, plus 10 years as a business executive prepared him for the presidency, he countered, “I’m not sure if leading men under fire or managing the country’s largest work force or running a business is the most important, but combined they have provided me the tools to do the job.”
Having selected businessman and former economy minister Arturo Zablah as his vice presidential running mate, Mr. Avila confessed to only one problem: “Celina, my wife, is a well-trained business executive, involved in many civic activities and a great campaigner.” He winked, “If she weren’t my wife, I could have named her as my running mate.”
Rodrigo Avila brings an innovative, relaxed style to El Salvador’s political life that has so far confounded FMLN militants. If he holds to form, El Salvador’s former top cop stands a solid chance of breaking the string of Chavez-backed victories that present such an enormous challenge to freedom in the region.
John R. Thomson analyzes geopolitical trends in developing countries. He welcomes comments at john.r@gmail.com.
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