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Polls looking up for GOP

Lead down to single digits

By Sean Lengell (Contact) | Sunday, September 14, 2008

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Capitol Hill Republicans say a recent swing in polling numbers might translate into fewer losses in November elections - and maybe some unexpected victories - as they recover from massive midterm losses in 2006 that gave Democrats control of Congress.

Republican congressional candidates, who trailed Democrats by double digits in several generic polls during the past year, have drawn to within three percentage points in a recent USA Today/Gallup survey.

"There's no 'generic' vote for Congress. ... These congressional seats are won one at a time," said House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, Missouri Republican. "But there's no doubt that the wind is not in our face like it's been the last three years."

With Democrats holding significant fundraising advantages and Republicans having to defend several congressional seats left open by retirements, Democrats say they're confident they'll increase their 36-seat advantage in the House and two-seat lead in the Senate.

"With less than two months until the election, polls will fluctuate," said Doug Thornell, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "The reality is, Democrats hold significant structural advantages over the GOP."

A Gallup survey released Friday shows Democrats leading Republicans 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters when respondents were asked, "If the elections were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?"

Democrats had held double-digit leads over Republicans in Gallup polling for most of the past year, maintaining an 11-point advantage as recently as August.

Among "likely voters," the Gallup poll shows Republican candidates lead Democratic candidates, 50 percent to 45 percent.

The Sept. 5-7 survey was conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., and mirrors other polls that show improved public standing of Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain.

A CNN/Opinion Research generic poll conducted during the same period also showed congressional Democrats with a three-point lead, 49 percent to 46 percent, over Republicans.