COHEN: Dealing with Russia

On Aug. 8, Russia decided to rewrite the rules of post-World War II European security. It repudiated the Helsinki Pact of 1975, which recognized the sanctity of borders in Europe, and violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of NATO aspirant Georgia, whose troops had attacked South Ossetia the day before. In the process, Russia also tore up its own peacekeeping mandate in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Moscow desires to become a hegemonic power in the former Soviet space. The Georgian war brought Russia back to the Southern Caucasus in force, outflanking oil-rich Azerbaijan, and affecting control over the principal energy and rail arteries bringing natural resources from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to the West and consumer and industrial goods to the East. The Russian military practically destroyed the Georgian military, which protected the pipelines and the Georgian port of Poti, the important Black Sea terminal of the East-West corridor.

The war in the Caucasus, however, surpasses the regional agenda. In fact, Russia’s war aims are far-reaching and include:

Such anti-status quo revisionism is the stuff of which world wars are made. Think the Balkan wars that preceded World War I or Adolf Hitler’s invasion of the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938 - with Europe’s acquiescence.

Russia proclaims that it wants to shift the global balance of power away from the United States; “Finlandize” Europe; revise global economic institutions; and return to highly competitive and often confrontational great power politics, reminiscent of the 19th century. Realists: 1, Fukuyama: 0.

In his recent nationally televised statement, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced as much. He rejected “unipolarity” - the code word for U.S. global leadership, calling such a world “unstable and conflict-ridden.”

Mr. Medvedev declared that while Russia does not want to isolate itself, it would defend “the life and dignity of its citizens wherever they are,” as well as its business interests. Most important, the Russian leader declared that his country has regions of “privileged interests,” which are not limited to Russia’s borderlands. One could include Iran, Syria, Cuba and even Venezuela in such a list.

Beyond that, Russia went into a diplomatic high gear, receiving the support of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes China and the five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) as members, and Iran, Mongolia, India and Pakistan as associate members. SCO expressed support for Russian action in Georgia but stopped short of recognizing independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russia also significantly shored up the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Comprising, besides Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Mr. Medvedev has announced that CSTO is going to build up its military muscle and its foreign policy will strongly support Moscow. Russia openly announced that CSTO is becoming a military bloc, similar to - and opposing - NATO.

The next U.S. administration and its allies need to design a comprehensive policy countering Moscow’s bid to shift the global balance of power away from liberal democracies and in favor of the oil-rich Authoritarian International. China and India will be the most important swing states in this struggle.

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