Polls undercut scripted protest claims

The White House’s claim that large and boisterous protests against health care reform over the past week have been scripted performances, underwritten by industry lobbyists and the Republican Party, continues to run into a stubborn reality check: public polling on the matter.

For more than two weeks, polls have consistently shown growing resistance to President Obama’s reform proposals, largely because of concerns about the nation’s deficit and debt.

“There are a number of statistically valid public opinion polls that show that there has been a dramatic increase in public concern about escalating deficits and debt levels and our nation’s increased reliance on foreign lenders,” said David Walker, the nation’s former comptroller general.

Mr. Walker, who as president of the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation since 2008 has spearheaded an effort to raise public awareness about the country’s long-term fiscal problems, said that the American people are “ahead of their elected officials” in understanding the need to rein in spending before expanding health care coverage.

“They get it,” he said. “Costs are out of control, and they threaten the future of this country. And you cannot reduce cost by expanding coverage. That’s an oxymoron.”

Polls have not always shown outright opposition to the specifics of Mr. Obama’s desired goals — something his allies have been quick to point out, if only to argue that the overall numbers render the polls useless or are a sign of confusion among the electorate.

But within the same polls that show support for a government-run insurance option or for higher taxes on top earners, there has been disapproval of the president’s handling of health care reform. Those polls also show that support for Mr. Obama’s reforms are trumped by fears that government spending is running away with the country’s future.

“It’s easy for people to say they’re in favor of raising taxes on rich people and business, but when you ask them whether they’re in favor of increasing the deficit … [to do] health care, that’s a trade-off question and that’s the question that really matters,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

A Quinnipiac poll last week found “strong support for critical elements of the Obama/Democratic plan” but also found that the nation’s projected $1.8 trillion deficit was the overriding concern of the poll’s 2,409 respondents.

A majority, 57 percent, said health care reform should be abandoned if it will “significantly” add to the deficit. Mr. Obama has promised that any reform will not add to the budget imbalance, but 72 percent of the registered voters surveyed by Quinnipiac said they did not think Mr. Obama would be able to deliver on that vow.

A National Public Radio poll of 850 likely voters in late July showed that 48 percent thought the president’s policies have increased the federal deficit and done little to slow job loss, while 45 percent said Mr. Obama has blunted the recession and set a foundation for recovery. The poll also showed 47 percent opposition to the Obama health care reforms in Congress, with 42 percent support.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of 1,011 adults on July 30 showed that 42 percent thought the current health care reforms were a bad idea, while 36 percent thought them a good idea. More surprisingly, Republicans in Congress were more trusted to fix the budget deficit by a 31 percent to 25 percent margin, a drastic turnaround from January, when Democrats held the edge by a margin of 42 percent to 20 percent.

But a July 27 poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press showed that 55 percent of 1,506 people surveyed still favored “spending more to make health care more accessible and affordable,” compared with the 40 percent who disagreed with that statement. However, that same poll showed 43 percent disapproval of Mr. Obama’s handling of the health care debate, 53 percent disapproval on the economy, and said that 44 percent “generally oppose” the health care proposals in Congress, while 38 percent generally favor them and 18 percent said they didn’t know.

The White House at first responded to the poll numbers by claiming that Americans were being influenced by “misinformation.” At one point in the middle of last week, an anonymous White House official told Politico that “poll numbers now, for health care, are up.”

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