Chevrolet Volt’s price tag packs a jolt

The most important number for the Chevrolet Volt electric car unveiled Tuesday may not be its promised 230 miles per gallon fuel economy in the city but its $40,000 price tag in a bad economy, analysts say.

Mass production is critical to lowering manufacturing costs and working out the kinks of new and unproven technologies — and the question is whether the Volt will ever get there.

“They’re not going to be able to make more until demand is there, and demand won’t be there until the price comes down,” said independent auto analyst Tom Libby. The price “puts it out of the ballpark, puts in on the fringes of the market,” he said.

An analysis by auto-information site Edmunds.com found that the cost of buying and driving a Volt, even after a $7,500 federal tax credit, would be substantially higher than that of the Toyota Prius and other hybrids.

The Prius, which starts at $22,000 and has a combined fuel-economy rating of 50 mpg, is the top-selling hybrid in the world, and 158,000 were sold in the United States last year. GM has said it eventually may produce 60,000 Volts a year.

To be sure, the Volt is a technological milestone that could have a “halo” effect for struggling GM — not known for innovation — giving the formerly bankrupt company the mantle of green-car leadership.

“It’s a real paradigm shift,” said Bruce Belzowski, assistant research scientist at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute.

“The lithium-ion battery pack right now is equivalent to the moonshot for the auto industry,” he said, referring to the competition among companies and countries for the most cost-effective technology.

Edmunds.com Chief Executive Jeremy Anwyl agreed.

“The Volts goal is to establish General Motors environmental credentials, making a statement of ‘green competence with the most environmentally friendly powertrain on the market.

“Just looking at this based on economics, GM would never build the car — and that was true for Toyota when launching the original Prius, too,” he said.

The success or failure of the Volt will have major implications for GM’s future, said Edmunds.com editorial director Kevin Smith.

“GM is really pinning its future on this car. The recent plight of the corporation makes this car really huge for GM,” he said.

“I think the chances actually are pretty good,” he said. “There isn’t any shortage of people who want to be the first on their block with a Volt.”

Mr. Libby disagreed.

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