Better relations with Turkey could aid Armenia

TBILISI, Georgia

Although the process has been slow, the historic bid to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia announced in April has potential to shift regional power balances by giving Armenia an opportunity to wrest itself from dependence on Russia.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in retaliation for Armenia’s support of an ethnic Armenian secession movement in neighboring Azerbaijan.

If the Turkish border reopened, landlocked Armenia would have greater access to trade through ports on the Mediterranean and Black seas, and would be less dependent on transit through Russia.

“Armenia is a weak country, and it is surrounded by countries that are either countries that are not friendly or were not friendly up until very recently,” said Masha Lipman, political analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Center.

“So Armenia found itself with Russia as it’s chief protector, but I don’t think this will last for a long time. I think Armenia, like others, can diversify now,” she said.

In April, diplomats from Turkey and Armenia disclosed that two years of secret diplomatic talks had produced a tentative framework for a package of sweeping reconciliation measures, including a reopening of the border and a bilateral commission to investigate what Armenians have called genocide by the Ottoman Empire, which preceded modern Turkey.

“Given the history of the relationship between the two [Turkey and Armenia], if this is real … it should take a long time. We’ve only seen the beginning of it,” said Ms. Lipman.

Armenia has maintained a close relationship with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union, and Iran has been expanding its economic ties to the small country. Ms. Lipman said these relationships have been built out of necessity.

If opened up, Armenia could potentially work toward NATO and EU integration and could become a major transit country for energy trade like it’s northern neighbor Georgia.

Apart from its turbulent relationship with Turkey, however, Armenia’s domestic politics have been an obstacle to strengthening its ties with the West.

In June, the U.S.-funded Millennium Challenge Corp. cut $64 million from an aid program aimed at repairing Armenia’s crumbling roads. The corporation’s acting director, Rodney Bent, released a statement saying this was a punitive measure for Armenia, whose actions were “inconsistent with the eligibility criteria that are at the heart of the MCC program.”

Mr. Bent was making reference to Armenia’s May 31 municipal elections, which — like the country’s February 2008 elections — were widely criticized by Western experts and the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan as fraudulent. With this loss of funds, Armenia turned to Russia and Iran.

Before the Iranian election crisis, talks were in the works for Iran to provide funding for the road reconstruction, and Russia announced this year it would offer a $500 million low-interest loan to Armenia, which has been hard-hit by the global economic crisis.

“It’s a general challenge when countries start to compete for sponsorship. We saw this from several countries during the Cold War,” said Ariel Cohen, a senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington.

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