GOP seeking House gains in 2010

Democratic retirements are fueling a Republican resurgence, but that still may not be enough for Congress to change hands next year. The recent decision by four veteran House Democrats to call it quits is raising questions about whether more will soon follow as the 2010 political climate grows more threatening in the midterm congressional elections, a year when government and business forecasters are predicting high unemployment and a slow economic recovery.

House Democratic campaign officials acknowledge that there may be some more retirements among their ranks, but they say speculation of a much larger number is nothing but “wishful thinking by the Republicans.”

“Republicans have been trying to predict a tidal wave of Democratic retirements all year, and they have been completely wrong,” said Ryan Rudominer, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman. Still, he added, “There could be some more Democratic retirements,” though he declined to say how many.

Some Democrats even have accused Republicans of floating speculative lists of other endangered members who may not seek re-election next year, in hopes of increasing the pressure on wavering members.

But independent election analysts say the number of Democratic retirements alone has not reached the point — so far — where it can seriously threaten the party’s 258-seat majority. That number would have to climb much higher before that could happen, they say.

“Democrats aren’t yet at the panic point in this process. Keep in mind that Democrats lost 22 open seats in 1994. Right now, they only have seven potentially open vulnerable seats, including the four recent retirements,” said David Wasserman, senior House elections analyst at the Cook Political Report.

“I would say that if the Democrats can keep their retirements among vulnerable seats to between 10 and 15, then I think they are in reasonably good shape. But if that number balloons past 15, then I think that Democrats are in trouble,” Mr. Wasserman said.

The four new House Democratic retirees in the past few weeks are Reps. Dennis Moore of Kansas, John Tanner and Bart Gordon of Tennessee, and Brian Baird of Washington state. Three more Democrats are leaving to run for Senate seats: Reps. Charlie Melancon of Louisiana, Paul Hodes of New Hampshire and Joseph Sestak of Pennsylvania.

Congressional election gains tend to occur more frequently in open-seat contests, and the seats held by House Democrats who are leaving are considered tossups at best, election forecasters say. Among the four recent retirements, Republican Sen. John McCain carried both districts in Tennessee in the 2008 presidential election and President George W. Bush carried all four districts in his 2004 re-election race.

“Democrats have one open seat that might pretty much be a goner,” said election handicapper Charlie Cook, citing Mr. Melancon’s district in an analysis for the National Journal.

Some of the retirees conceded that next year’s tougher political terrain was a factor in their decisions. “My shelf life was starting to run out. Our district clearly is a more difficult environment,” Mr. Gordon said in his retirement announcement.

Actually, the handful of retirements to date may be the least of the Democrats’ troubles in an election cycle in which the party in power historically loses seats in Congress.

A number of issues have rocked the political landscape, including the economy and double-digit unemployment; the bitter battle over health care reform; and unprecedented levels of federal spending, budget deficits and government debt.

Republican campaign officials say the latest retirements represent a growing recognition by Democrats that their party will suffer significant losses in 2010.

“What a difference a year makes,” said Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, in a memo last week to Republican House members.

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