Election troublesome for some Shiites

UPDATED:

BAGHDAD (AP) — They once seemed to hold all the sway in Iraq: political rule of the crucial Shiite heartland, the backing of influential clerics and a foot in the government with ambitions to take full control.

But the days of wide-open horizons could be soon ending for Iraq’s biggest Shiite political machine, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, and replaced by important shifts in Iraq’s political momentum that could be welcomed in Washington and scorned in Tehran.

Setbacks for the Supreme Council would open space for wider political realignments by Iraq’s majority Shiites that could boost the U.S.-backed prime minister and leave Iran without a powerful channel for influence in Iraq.

The signs began to take shape Sunday with hints of the voter mood from provincial elections.

The broad message, built on Iraqi media projections and postelection interviews, was that the eventual results would punish religious-leaning factions blamed for stoking sectarian violence and reward secular parties seen capable of holding Iraq’s relative calm.

The outcome of the provincial races will not directly affect Iraq’s national policies or its balance between Washington’s global power and Iran’s regional muscle. But Shiite political trends are critically important in Iraq, where majority Shiites now hold sway after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated regime.

“There is a backlash from Iraqis against sectarian and religious politics,” said Mustafa al-Ani, an Iraqi political analyst based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The Supreme Council could take a direct hit .

Although official results from Saturday’s voting are likely still days away, the early outlines are humbling for a group that had been considered a linchpin in Iraqi politics as a junior partner in the government and its near seamless political control in the Shiite south.

Now, some forecasts point to widespread losses across the main Shiite provinces. The blows possibly could include embarrassing stumbles in the key city of Basra and the spiritual center of Najaf, hailed as the future capital in the Supreme Council’s dreams for an autonomous Shiite enclave.

In their place, the big election winners appear to be allies of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, according to projections and interviews with political figures who spoke on condition of anonymity because official results are not posted.

It’s a vivid lesson in Iraq’s fluid politics.

A year ago, Mr. al-Maliki looked to be sinking. Shiite militiamen ruled cities such as Basra and parts of Baghdad and rockets were pouring into the protected Green Zone, which includes the U.S. Embassy, Iraq’s parliament and the prime minister’s office.

Mr. al-Maliki, with apparent little advance coordination with the U.S. military, struck back. An offensive broke the militia control in Basra and elsewhere in the south. His reputation was turned around.

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