BEYOND: Picturing 3-D’s new sales zip

According to Hollywood analysts, the stop-motion feature film “Coraline” was headed for a mediocre opening last weekend, something in the $8 million to $10 million range. Instead, the movie confounded expectations by premiering with a gross of almost $17 million.

Such variations aren’t unheard of, but a gaping difference like this one suggests something is going on.

How did the experts miss so badly?

“The general tracking always seems to undercalculate family movies,” says Jack Foley, president of theatrical distribution for Focus Features. “That might have played into it.”

More important, however, is the lack of emphasis the trackers put into the grosses taken in by films screening in 3-D.

“They have to go back and see what they have to fix with regard to registering 3-D … because something really went wrong. I don’t mind saying that. Something went profoundly wrong.”

“On ‘Coraline,’ 3-D accounted for 70 percent of the box-office opening weekend,” says Rick Heineman, vice president for corporate communications at RealD. RealD is one of the companies at the forefront of the 3-D revolution; almost 60 percent of the box office for “Coraline” came from theaters equipped with RealD 3-D technology.

As a whole, 3-D outperformed 2-D almost 3-1 in terms of total box-office take.

“Coraline” is the second 3-D film in the past month to outperform expectations, and the growing acceptance of the format among consumers almost certainly provided a boost to the receipts.

“We’re in a flow of 3-D films: ‘Bolt’ to ‘My Bloody Valentine,’ it’ll go to ‘Jonas Brothers’ [in two weekends] and then into ‘Monsters vs. Aliens,’” Mr. Foley says.

“There are lots of people who saw ‘Bolt’ that are seeing ‘Coraline.’ People. Love. 3-D. Movies,” he exclaims.

“Someday the movie industry will understand that. Someday people will take Jeffrey Katzenberg more seriously than what seems to be going on in exhibition or even in the studios.”

Mr. Katzenberg has crisscrossed the country in recent months pitching exhibitors and journalists alike on the merits of 3-D. The reason theater owners have been slow to adapt is its cost: Converting a theater to 3-D runs tens of thousands of dollars per screen — but the benefit is enormous.

“We opened two screens at 42nd Street at the Empire on ‘Coraline,’ and it grossed over $77,000 over the weekend,” Mr. Foley says. How much more do you need to understand the power of 3-D? $77,000. Two screens.”

One reason demand is so high is that consumers know these 3-D films will show only for a couple of weeks because of the paucity of screens.

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