Obama taking new tack on Russia

The Obama administration has made clear that it will handle Russia more pragmatically than the Bush administration, but there is sharp disagreement over the degree to which the new president will reverse his predecessor’s policies and how that will affect U.S. interests and the Eurasian region.

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s speech to world leaders in Munich last weekend was a marked contrast from the Bush era. Instead of championing the cause of former Soviet republics Georgia and Ukraine, both of which want to join NATO, Mr. Biden was silent on the issue. And he left wiggle room for President Obama to back out of a missile-defense system in Eastern Europe.

Mr. Biden warned of a “dangerous drift” in U.S.-Russia relations and said it is time to “press the reset button” and look for areas of cooperation.

Some Russia specialists pointed to caveats in Mr. Biden’s speech and said the Obama administration may remain tough with the Kremlin while also recognizing the limits of U.S. leverage with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev.

Others said that on the key issues - NATO expansion and missile defense - Mr. Biden signaled concessions that would render any tough language irrelevant and would equal capitulation to Russian bullying.

“The speed with which the U.S. administration is giving up old positions is pretty remarkable. It’s quite astonishing,” said Andrei Illarionov, a top economic adviser to Mr. Putin from 2000 to 2005, who has since become a Putin critic and is now at the Cato Institute in Washington.

Mr. Illarionov, who has criticized Mr. Putin for suppressing democracy, called Mr. Biden’s speech “a statement of complete defeat on the part of the U.S. administration” and a “complete victory for the Russian leadership,” citing the vice president’s apparent willingness to skip over a long pattern of Russian domestic misbehavior and international pugnacity.

Others, however, saw Mr. Biden’s address as a more subtle and realistic approach.

“Biden was basically saying, ‘Let’s try to put this relationship on a better footing and see if we can’t back away from the mutual antagonisms that have marked the last few years,’ ” said Charles A. Kupchan, a former top European adviser to President Clinton now with the Council on Foreign Relations and teaching at Georgetown University.

“The question really is: Will the Russians take up the offer and pursue a different kind of diplomacy now that Obama’s in office, or just continue with the status quo?” Mr. Kupchan said.

That’s a big question, he acknowledged, because “Russian behavior over the last 12 months, from the invasion of Georgia to the turning off of gas to Ukraine, provides plenty of reason to be cautious.”

“It never hurts to appear to be open to an improved relationship, but when you observe Russian behavior, they seem to go out of their way to cause problems,” said noted neoconservative Richard Perle. “I can’t think of anything the Russians have done to be helpful to the United States in the last several years.”

A key first test is whether Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic, will let the U.S. continue to use an air base that is a key resupply stop for troops and supplies bound for Afghanistan.

The Washington Times reported Thursday that the Obama administration has sent two top officials to Moscow to urge the Russians to stop pressuring Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to end the lease.

The U.S. is expected to offer additional aid to the former Soviet republic, which announced earlier this month that it was kicking the Americans out. Mr. Bakiyev made the announcement in Moscow after a meeting with Mr. Medvedev, in which the Russian government promised $2 billion in aid to Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz decision has since been put on hold.

Story Continues →