Ethiopian pullout seen likely to aid country's stability

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By Matt Purple THE WASHINGTON TIMES

A suicide attack on African Union peacekeepers punctuated last week's withdrawal. And Islamist rebels Monday took control of the airport and parliament building in Baidoa, the last stronghold of a U.N.-backed government.

But several Africa specialists say that the absence of Ethiopian forces, which drove rebels from the Somali capital in 2006, could help bring about greater stability in the long-term by depriving Somali extremist groups of a substantial recruiting tool.

Ted Dagne, who analyzes Africa for the Congressional Research Service, said the departure of Ethiopians - viewed as an occupying power by many Somalis - could loosen the grip of Al-Shabab, an Islamic militia that gained notoriety during the two-year Ethiopian occupation of the capital. Al-Shabab is often compared to al Qaeda and the Taliban.

"Most of the Shabab joined because they hated Ethiopia and hated what they saw as an aggression," Mr. Dagne said.

Somalia, a country on the Horn of Africa, has been beset by violence for decades, usually among rival warlords competing for power.

The nation has not had a stable government since 1991. Authority is currently vested with the U.N.-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG), whose top officials have scattered in exile.

Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006, hoping to prop up the TFG and repel the Islamic Courts Union, which then controlled Mogadishu.

After the Ethiopian invasion, Al-Shabab spread rapidly, launching frequent guerrilla attacks against Ethiopians and the Somali TFG. Al-Shabab currently controls much of the Somali south, including Kismayo, the nation's third-largest city, pockets of Mogadishu and much of Baidoa.

Al-Shabab rose to prominence after Ethiopian troops repelled the Islamic Courts Union.

Mr. Dagne said that, when the latest bloodshed began, moderate elements fled the country, leaving Islamists to fill the gaps.