Inside the Ring

North Korean leadership

New reports from U.S. and diplomatic sources say that the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il continues to decline and that he may have only one more year to live.

A U.S. official who is familiar with the Korea situation but spoke on condition that he not be named said there are signs that Mr. Kim is still not well nearly a year after he suffered a stroke.

“Kim Jong-il certainly hasn’t been in good shape since his stroke last year, and, as time wears on, it’s increasingly clear that he’s not where he was before experiencing his health setback,” the official said.

A diplomatic source who also asked not to be named said reports from Asia indicate Mr. Kim recently gave up Western medical treatment and is relying mostly on Asian remedies, including herbal brews and other nontraditional methods.

Mr. Kim, 67, made a rare public appearance on state television in Pyongyang on Wednesday and appeared haggard and gaunt. Intelligence analysts had earlier concluded that he appeared to have recovered from the stroke and assessed that he remained firmly in control as the reclusive communist state’s maximum leader.

However, the announcement last month that Mr. Kim’s third son, Kim Jong-un, would eventually take over from his father fueled speculation that Mr. Kim is in failing health.

U.S. and diplomatic sources declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information. They said Mr. Kim’s health problems have set off an apparent succession in Pyongyang that is expected to culminate in Kim Jong-un taking over in about a year’s time.

Two power factions have emerged within the ruling military-political structure in North Korea that are being watched closely by intelligence analysts.

One is headed by close confident and senior military aide to Kim Jong-il, Gen. O Kuk-ryol. The other faction is headed by Jang Song-taek, who is related to Mr. Kim by marriage and who is considered a key aide with experience.

Both Gen. O and Mr. Jang were elevated to positions on the all-powerful Central Military Commission, the power organ that has eclipsed the communist Workers’ Party of Korea as the main vehicle of control for the regime.

POW commission restarts

Russia agreed this week to reactivate a U.S.-Russian commission on prisoners of war and missing in action (POW-MIA) issues that Moscow backed away from in 2004 amid worsening ties with Washington.

The White House announced that the U.S. and Russian governments reached “a common understanding on a framework” on the commission after exchanging diplomatic notes.

Specifically, the two sides are renewing talks at the U.S.-Russia Joint Commission on Prisoners of War and Missing in Action set up in the early 1990s to resolve issues of missing servicemen.

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