Virginia Republicans expect to make gains

Virginia Democrats thought incumbent Delegate Dan C. Bowling had a safe seat.

That was before Republican James W. Morefield successfully turned the discussion in their Southwest Virginia coal-producing region into the negative effects of proposed federal cap-and-trade legislation, which would limit companies’ carbon emissions.

Now Democrats are fighting to win the race that the political blog Swing State Project has reclassified from “likely Democrat” to a “toss-up.”

That story has been repeated across Virginia, as voters awash in weighty national issues have a voice only in state elections this season. Democrats have seen their optimistic hopes of retaking the House of Delegates dim, as the top of their state ticket has fallen further behind in recent polls.

Currently, Republicans hold 53 seats in the House, while Democrats hold 43. Two seats are held by independents, and two are vacant. All 100 seats are up for grabs, but only 69 races are contested.

Republican House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith is predicting that Republicans could pick up two seats but added, “If it’s a really good Republican night, we do have 12 seats that are close.”

His counterpart, Democratic House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong, refuses to make predictions but says he is “neither blind nor stupid.”

“There are a lot of people who are upset with Washington,” Mr. Armstrong said.

“I remind everyone we go to Richmond to enact laws. I take responsibility and we all do for that, but not what the U.S. Congress does. We don’t have a say in federal health care reform.

“At the end of the day, a lot of people will differentiate between the two and make a decision to elect a member of the House of Delegates on the candidate’s qualifications and views on state issues,” Mr. Armstrong said.

A gain of a few delegates would return to Republican hands seats that switched during the Bush presidency.

Among the closely contested races:

In Fairfax County, Bush administration Justice Department official Barbara J. Comstock is trying to knock out one-term Delegate Margaret E. Vanderhye, a Democrat. Each raised and spent more than a half-million dollars as of Oct. 21, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Mr. Armstrong said that because of a shift in population, Democrats will eventually win the seats in Fairfax County, where Republican Delegate Thomas D. Rust, a four-term incumbent, is fighting challenger Democrat Stevens R. Miller.

He also thinks Democrats will ultimately take the seat of eight-term incumbent Republican Delegate David B. Albo, who faces Democrat Gregory A. Werkheiser.

Republican businessman Thomas A. “Tag” Greason is challenging two-term incumbent Delegate David E. Poisson in Loudoun County. They’ve each raised and spent about $300,000.

With former Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeffrey M. Frederick opting not to run for re-election in Prince William County, the seat is up for grabs. Republican Rafael Lopez, a former Dumfries town council member, and Democrat Luke E. Torian, a Baptist minister who helped marshal voters for Mr. Obama’s election, are seeking election.

Mr. Torian has outraised and outspent Mr. Lopez by about 3-to-1. The Democrat raised $360,513 and spent $294,943, and Mr. Lopez raised $111,473 and spent $94,744.

First-term Democratic Delegate Paul F. Nichols is facing a challenge from retired Air Force officer Richard L. Anderson in Woodbridge. The Democrat raised and spent a little more than a half-million dollars, while the Republican raised $300,380 and spent $284,137 as of Oct. 21.

Meanwhile, in voter-rich Hampton Roads, Republican Delegate Phillip A. Hamilton, the 10-term incumbent who represents the city of Newport News, is fighting off a challenge from consumer-rights lawyer Robin Abbott. A House ethics panel and a federal grand jury are examining possible impropriety in a teaching job that Mr. Hamilton arranged for himself at Old Dominion University. According to news reports, Mr. Hamilton sent hundreds of thousands of dollars to the school in exchange for the position.

Republicans are fighting to regain two Virginia Beach seats lost in 2007.

In a rematch, Democratic Delegate Joseph Bouchard is hoping to again defeat Republican Christopher Stolle, a former Navy doctor. The brother of Republican state Sen. Kenneth W. Stolle, Mr. Stolle had raised $684,768 while Mr. Bouchard had raised $479,609 as of the last campaign-finance report, filed Oct. 21.

Democratic Delegate Robert W. Mathieson is up against Ronald A. Villanueva, a Republican city council member. The first-term incumbent has raised $581,496 and spent $485,324. Mr. Villanueva raised $389,874 and spent $380,912 as of Oct. 21.