Inside the Ring

China estimate war

The commander of the U.S. Pacific Command recently set off a new debate among China hands and the U.S. intelligence community about whether past estimates of China’s military buildup were deficient.

Adm. Robert F. Willard told reporters in Seoul recently, “I would contend that in the past decade or so, China has exceeded most of our intelligence estimates of their military capability and capacity every year. They’ve grown at an unprecedented rate in those capabilities.”

Asked about the unusually candid remark, a senior U.S. intelligence official did not dispute the admiral’s claim. “We consider the [People’s Liberation Army] to be a capable military force,” the official said. “That’s been our view for years, and their desire to modernize has never been in doubt.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of a policy of not publicly discussing internal assessments.

Wendy Moragi, a spokeswoman for Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dennis C. Blair, whose office compiles all National Intelligence Estimates, said her office regards the controversy over Adm. Willard’s statement as “overblown.”

“No one here seems to think Adm. Willard was making the case that we were flat-footed on China,” she said.

“The intelligence community’s annual threat assessments have consistently portrayed China as a rising power diplomatically, economically and militarily for more than a decade,” Ms. Moragi said. “The intelligence community continually reassesses its understanding of national-security issues affecting the United States, and when new information is presented, our views and assessments can change. In fact, as it became clear that the PLA had accelerated its modernization efforts a decade ago, the intelligence-community analysis reflected it.”

Ms. Moragi provided Inside the Ring with a list of statements from annual threat-briefing testimonies before Congress since 1996 by CIA Directors John M. Deutch and George J. Tenet and former DNI John D. Negroponte and Mr. Blair. All state that China’s military was expanding as part of a modernization program. The testimony notes Chinese military expansion, including development and purchase of missiles, warplanes and other advanced weaponry. However, none say the buildup has exceeded earlier intelligence estimates of China’s expected military modernization, as Adm. Willard contends.

The debate over intelligence estimates on China dates to the late 1990s and culminated in a successful effort by then-Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Sen. Richard C. Shelby, Alabama Republican, to pressure the CIA into creating a 12-member blue-ribbon panel of experts to review intelligence estimates on China. Although the panel’s final report was kept secret, officials close to the commission stated at the time that it concluded the CIA was guilty of an “institutional predisposition” - or bias - on China’s military buildup.

Recent Chinese military advances include the deployment of a new attack submarine, the development of a long-range cruise missile, precision-guided ballistic missiles and new high-technology warships.

Navy Capt. Lydia Robertson, a spokeswoman for Adm. Willard, would not elaborate on the admiral’s claim.

However, she said “the admiral’s remarks were a comment about the lack of clear intent from China on developing capabilities.”

“As he said in that interview, one of his responsibilities is to better relations and levels of understanding regarding their intentions and military development, with a focus on collective regional engagement,” Capt. Robertson said.

John J. Tkacik Jr., a China specialist and former State Department intelligence official, said China’s new military technologies “are now coming out to bite us.”

“And we haven’t prepared for them because we have always been surprised,” Mr. Tkacik told Inside the Ring. “And we’re always surprised because we simply can’t believe that China really is seeking regional military pre-eminence. I think that’s changing now, but it might be too late.”

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