Darfur peril remains

KHARTOUM, Sudan

Rodolphe Adada, the outgoing commander of the U.N.-African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur, raised eyebrows in April when he said the conflicting in Western Sudan had quieted to a “low intensity conflict.”

Mr. Adada lifted those eyebrows further this week when he accepted one of Sudan’s top honors - the Order of the Two Niles - from Sudanese President Omar Bashir, the target of an international arrest warrant for war crimes charges in the Darfur conflict.

Mr. Adada, who stood down Monday as head of the Darfur peacekeeping force after a two-year mandate, received the award on a farewell visit to Lt. Gen. Bashir.

“I have achieved results. The main result is the end of massacres in Darfur,” he said in an interview with Agence France-Presse.

“We can no longer talk of a big conflict, of a war in Darfur,” Mr. Adada told the Associated Press. “I think now everybody understands it. We can no longer speak of this issue. It is over.”

The United Nations says conflict in the Darfur region has caused at least 300,000 deaths since 2003 and displaced 2.7 million people, while Sudan puts the toll at 10,000 dead.

“The enemies of Sudan were not pleased by the report of Rodolphe Adada on Darfur, therefore they refused to renew his office term,” Gen. Bashir said, according to official Suna news agency.

Activists and Darfur residents not only disagree, they fear that Mr. Adada’s remarks foreshadow a decrease in international focus on resolving the root problems in the troubled region.

The joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission in Darfur, or UNAMID, has recorded a sharp decline in fatalities from violence. There were 16 deaths in June, compared with an average 130 deaths per month last year.

The Darfur conflict began in February 2003 when ethnic African rebels took up arms against the Arab-dominated Sudanese government in Khartoum, claiming discrimination and neglect.

It galvanized global outrage, routinely being labeled the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and earning the label “genocide” from Secretary of State Colin L. Powell during the first George W. Bush administration.

But President Obama’s new envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, is offering an assessment similar to that of Mr. Adada. In June, he said the violence in Darfur no longer amounted to genocide and then suggested easing sanctions against the Sudanese government.

Adding to the complications, violence is on the rise on another front in semiautonomous southern Sudan, more than four years after a 2005 peace accord ended a separate 21-year civil war that left 2 million people dead. If violence there escalates, it could potentially overshadow Darfur.

During a visit to Darfur in July, Mr. Gration appealed to refugees in one of the largest camps to return to their villages. He also suggested easing sanctions against Sudan, telling a Senate hearing that month there was no longer any evidence to support the U.S. designation of Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism.

His comments were welcomed by the Sudanese government, which has always maintained the death toll in Darfur was greatly exaggerated and said it was fighting a counterinsurgency, not a war.

But they worried activists and Darfur residents.

“The perception … that if it is not getting worse … it [must be] getting better is something that takes the wind out of the sails of international action,” said John Prendergast, one of President Clinton’s point men on Sudan.

Mr. Prendergast said the new phase of violence in Darfur is a “breaking spirits” campaign, which seeks to demoralize the refugees.

The Darfur rebels have also dismissed Mr. Adada’s declaration, saying government forces were still operating in the region and violence against civilians continues in the camps.

“There are no more people on their land to kill,” said Abdelwahid Elnur, exiled leader of one of the oldest rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Army, whose fighters are largely stationed in a central mountain hide-out.

At the height of the conflict, government-allied militias known as the janjaweed burned whole villages and government planes dropped bombs on populated areas. Reports of rape by the gunmen abounded and thousands ran for their lives from the armed fighters.

Meanwhile, billions of dollars continue to pour into the largest emergency aid program in the world - which is screened by the Khartoum government of Gen. Bashir.

The International Criminal Court issued a warrant for the Sudanese leader in March on charges of orchestrating war crimes in Darfur.

Experts warn that millions continue to suffer in poorly protected refugee camps, where they live in fear of random violence by government-allied militias.

“I think unless we accept that UNAMID figures are very narrowly construed, we miss seeing some of the consequences of ongoing violence,” said Eric Reeves, a Sudan researcher and professor at Smith College in Northampton, Mass.

The deployment of the joint U.N.-African peacekeeping force in 2008 came after long and tortuous negotiations between the international community and a reluctant Sudanese government.

The joint force - mandated at 26,000 - took over from an ineffectual African Union force of 7,000. But UNAMID still operates at just 70 percent of its capacity and lacks tactical helicopters that can quickly reach conflict zones in a region larger than California.

Mr. Adada said UNAMID has contributed to the decline in violence with its presence in rural areas and camps. However, many activists question whether the force has really been a factor in reducing violence.

Experts say one explanation for the drop in violence is that the Khartoum government has largely achieved its counterinsurgency goals of depriving the rebels of their popular bases by driving civilians out of Darfur.

Rebel groups have fragmented, from three in 2003 to more than 30 factions living in disarray in mountain hide-outs or across the border in Chad. Violence is often between rebel factions over territorial control. Banditry and kidnapping are also on the rise, often aimed at truck drivers bringing in aid.

For Sheik Saleh, a 42-year-old leader in the Kalma Camp in south Darfur, Mr. Gration’s call for refugees to return to their villages would “make me a victim for the second time.” Mr. Saleh, a father of seven, met with the U.S. envoy when he visited the camp in July.

“My village was burned three times, and now it is occupied by new inhabitants. How can I go back there?” he said in a telephone interview from the camp. “Instead of supporting us after hearing our complaints, he came out … supporting the Sudan government.”

Mr. Saleh said insecurity and rape continue in the camp, where 33 residents were killed last year in one of the bloodiest attacks on a refugee camp.

Mr. Gration later issued a statement acknowledging the situation in Darfur remains dire and saying he supports “smart” sanctions on Sudan, and would not advocate an “untimely” return of refugees.