GOP eyes Ohio in 2010

Ohio, a traditional bellwether state, will take center stage once again to gauge how the two major parties will fare in 2010, a year Republicans are hoping to make gains in statehouses and congressional seats across the country.

Republicans are looking to defeat Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland with the help of former congressman and Fox News host John Kasich, and win an edge in congressional redistricting in the process.

The Republicans are also playing defense in the state, however, hoping to hold onto the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. George Voinovich — a moderate Republican representing a state that broke for President Barack Obama last year.

“When you look at the bigger picture, this is going to be the ultimate litmus test of whether George W. Bush is still a campaign issue for Democrats,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the Cook Political Report.

Gov. Strickland and fellow Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown rode a wave of national discontent with the Bush administration in 2006 to knock off two Republican incumbents.

But the national tide — shown in President Obama’s slipping public approval and stoked by a still-struggling state economy — appears to be trending away from the broad advantage Democrats enjoyed in the last two election cycles.

How Rob Portman, a former congressman and head of President George W. Bush’s Office of Management and Budget, fares in his bid to succeed Mr. Voinovich should give a clear indication whether Democrats can still win races by tying candidates to the previous administration, Ms. Duffy said.

Mr. Portman, who also served in Mr. Bush’s Cabinet as chief trade negotiator, is facing a potentially divisive primary challenge from Ohio auto dealer Tom Ganley. Two Democrats, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, have already launched their campaigns for the Democratic nod in the race.

Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report list the Senate contest as a tossup.

A Sept. 16 Quinnipiac University poll found that Mr. Obama’s popularity has rebounded from a 49 percent favorability rating in July to 53 percent in early September. Mr. Fisher leads Ms. Brunner and Mr. Portman is ahead of Mr. Ganley in their respective primary battles, but the percentage of undecideds in both parties is above 50 percent.

Both Democrats holds early leads in head-to-head matchups with their Republican rivals, but the poll notes that the election is still far off. Pollster Peter Brown said the results were slightly skewed because of when it was conducted.

“Perhaps it’s because the poll was taken immediately after the president’s nationally televised prime time speech to Congress, but Democratic fortunes in Ohio have improved slightly across the board,” Mr. Brown said.

The Ohio House delegation is almost evenly split, with 10 Democrats and eight Republicans, but the majority of those seats are expected to be safe for the incumbents. The Republicans could even the number completely by picking off Democrat Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, the only House incumbent seen now to be facing a tough race.

Democrats are rated as having a slightly better chance of holding onto the governor’s mansion, but still face a strong challenge to an increasingly unpopular incumbent, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

“Strickland is facing some of the same challenges his colleagues across the country are. People are still nervous about the economy and looking to the governor to make some tough decisions,” Mr. Gonzales said. “Strickland’s poll numbers are not spectacular. We’re still a year out from the election, we’ll have to see what the economy does.”

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