GOP eyes Ohio in 2010

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By Tom LoBianco

Ohio, a traditional bellwether state, will take center stage once again to gauge how the two major parties will fare in 2010, a year Republicans are hoping to make gains in statehouses and congressional seats across the country.

Republicans are looking to defeat Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland with the help of former congressman and Fox News host John Kasich, and win an edge in congressional redistricting in the process.

The Republicans are also playing defense in the state, however, hoping to hold onto the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. George Voinovich — a moderate Republican representing a state that broke for President Barack Obama last year.

"When you look at the bigger picture, this is going to be the ultimate litmus test of whether George W. Bush is still a campaign issue for Democrats," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the Cook Political Report.

Gov. Strickland and fellow Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown rode a wave of national discontent with the Bush administration in 2006 to knock off two Republican incumbents.

But the national tide — shown in President Obama's slipping public approval and stoked by a still-struggling state economy — appears to be trending away from the broad advantage Democrats enjoyed in the last two election cycles.

How Rob Portman, a former congressman and head of President George W. Bush's Office of Management and Budget, fares in his bid to succeed Mr. Voinovich should give a clear indication whether Democrats can still win races by tying candidates to the previous administration, Ms. Duffy said.

Mr. Portman, who also served in Mr. Bush's Cabinet as chief trade negotiator, is facing a potentially divisive primary challenge from Ohio auto dealer Tom Ganley. Two Democrats, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, have already launched their campaigns for the Democratic nod in the race.

Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report list the Senate contest as a tossup.

A Sept. 16 Quinnipiac University poll found that Mr. Obama's popularity has rebounded from a 49 percent favorability rating in July to 53 percent in early September. Mr. Fisher leads Ms. Brunner and Mr. Portman is ahead of Mr. Ganley in their respective primary battles, but the percentage of undecideds in both parties is above 50 percent.