ANALYSIS/OPINION:
Last week’s encounter between the so-called “peace flotilla” and Israeli Defense Forces has far-reaching implications beyond the conflict between the Jewish state and the Palestinians and their supporters.
Those concerns eventually will dictate the course of the U.S. fight against terrorism. Basic trends are now obscured by Washington’s desperate attempt to minimize friction with the umma, the whole of the world’s 1.3 billion Muslims.
But the clash has dramatized an ugly reality: A world torn apart by Islamic fanaticism verging on nihilism is increasingly abetted by old European and American leftism. That is further compounded by a slow, drawn-out economic recovery in the West. And that, in turn, threatens the future prosperity of rapidly growing, export-led Asian economies.
This economic and political devil’s brew includes:
• The Turkish government’s knowledge/participation in the flotilla operation, a connection that casts doubt not only on Ankara’s role but also brings into question the hoped-for rapid modernization of other Muslim societies.
• The crumbling of NATO’s eastern flank as Turkey, a key member of the alliance, courts Iran, Russia and Syria and other dubious regimes in an effort to assert regional hegemony.
• The moral, political and military dilemma that Israel’s plight poses for the West, as hostile forces threaten Jerusalem’s very existence and make impossible for now any major compromises from the Jewish state — including the long-standing land-for-peace formula.
• The clear failure of President Obama’s outreach to the Islamic world, with all signs now pointing to growing radicalization and no evidence of the emergence of strong reform-minded leadership.
All these issues are complex, of course, and there will continue to be conflicting evidence. But just as the collapse of European welfare statism has proved those critics clairvoyant who argued against creating socially dependent societies, so inevitably will the true nature of the present conflict become self-evident in time.
As the anti-Nazi German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemoeller acknowledged so long ago, the Jews — this time in their own country — are the canary in the mine shaft.
That Jerusalem underestimated the capacity for violence in the flotilla clash is intriguing. The Turkish activists’ affiliation to Istanbul terrorist elements was well-known. Counterintuitively, Israeli caution led to higher casualties in the incident, grist for propaganda mills of the new “red-green” alliance — the traditional Western radical left and modern Islamicists. Their attempt to portray the provocative voyage as a mission of mercy ignored Gaza’s large food and aid stocks being provided through traditional European and American aid channels, aid that was actually flowing through Israel and Egypt to the Palestinians.
The Israelis are facing rapidly arming terrorist neighbors — Hamas in the south, Hezbollah to the north, and an increasingly unstable Jordan to their east — and can take no new gambles on their security in any “peace process.” Israel’s Gaza withdrawal has proved a strategic catastrophe.
Meanwhile, the Tehran mullahs who arm these groups are moving relentlessly toward nuclear weapons at some indeterminate date. However credible Tehran’s threat to wipe Israel off the map, a nuclear Iran would menace world oil and gas supply lines and pose a constant threat to regional and global stability.
Turkey’s new role as an apologist for Tehran means turning its back on its half-century alliance with the U.S. Ankara returns to an equivocal position, much like that during World War II when former German Chancellor Franz von Papen made Istanbul the Nazis’ overseas intelligence center.
It is hard to judge how much Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policies are Machiavellian and how much “Amateur Hour.” But clearly a half-century of top-down government-enforced secularism is fading rapidly under attack from a new conservative Muslim middle class in Turkey — created, ironically, in no small part by huge post-World War II American aid. The postwar aid does not include vast sums spent on and from U.S. bases and training programs in the country. By way of thanks, Turkey, of course, blocked transit rights for U.S. and allied forces during the 2003 Iraq invasion.
Although Ankara now runs a bilateral trade deficit because of its energy dependence on Moscow, Turkish companies are investing heavily in Russia. In return, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised to build Turkey’s first nuclear power plant — ominous given Moscow’s collaboration in helping to lay the groundwork for Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Unlike the Korean War, and even Vietnam, where Turkey played a significant role, Turkey’s 1,800-strong troop contingent in Afghanistan is smaller than the Netherlands’ and its mission is restricted to training. So much for calculations that Turkey’s high birthrate and strong military tradition would make it a top contributor to NATO’s European fighter pool.
It was in Turkey, of course, where Mr. Obama last year launched his celebrated foreign policy initiative, an attempt to engage with a hoped-for strengthening of moderate Islam. The president’s reiteration of American support for Turkish entry into the European Union rings hollow today with membership out of the question. To the contrary, how to deal with radicalization of Europe’s growing Muslim populations — including a large number of Turks — has become a chief Western European headache. And nowhere has new, effective reformist Muslim leadership arisen.
• Sol Sanders, veteran foreign correspondent and analyst, writes weekly on the convergence of international politics, business and economics. He can be reached at solsanders@cox.net.
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